We’re around one month removed from the 2009 MLB draft and I thought it could be fun to cast our minds back three years and do a review of the 2006 MLB draft. I’m going to go over the players who signed from the first ten rounds as well as any other notable selections.

1 (29) – Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Texas
Stats to date: 25-33, 4,26 ERA, 1.479 WHIP, 279K/157BB, 449.2 IP

Kyle McCulloch, a soft tossing righty out of Texas was a pick very much in the mold of 2005 first rounder Lance Broadway, and to date, neither or these two look like future big leaguers. McCulloch made a nice start to his pro career after signing for just over $1m, he posted a 1.61 ERA at rookie level Great Falls in 22.1 IP with a 27/7 K/BB rate. He was then promoted to high-A Winston-Salem and this is where things quickly started to deteriorate, his strikeout rate plummeted from 10.9 K/9 to just 5.3 K/9 and his walk rate jumped from 2.8 BB/9 to 4.3 BB/9, this resulted in a 4.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. McCulloch improved at the start of the 2007 season but the strikeout rate was a still disappointing 6.5 K/9 and this only got worse with a late season promotion to Double-A Birmingham. The last season and a half McCulloch has done nothing more than just “exist”, he’s posted an ERA around 4.5, with a WHIP around 1.5 to go along with sub-5 K/9 rates. This year has been his best in terms of limiting the free passes with his BB/9 rate sitting at 2.1, but even still, it is near impossible to project a 24 year old Double-A “prospect” who is striking out a meager 4.3 batters per 9 innings as anything more than Minor League filler.

2 (73) – Matt Long, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
Stats to date: 19-22, 5.47 ERA, 1.535 WHIP, 237K/99BB, 303 IP

Matt Long tantalized scouts as a top Ohio high school prospect with his long, lean frame and projectable arm but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2004 and was rehabilitating for most of 2005. He recovered well from the surgery however and with a strong 2006 season pushed his way up to the 2nd round of the draft. Long was assigned to Kannapolis after signing where he pitched out of the bullpen and the results were horrendous with him putting up an ERA in the low 8’s and a 1.90 WHIP. It wasn’t until last year that Long started to show some promise, but even then he was a 24 year old pitching in High Class-A, making his 8.1 K/9 rate a lot less impressive than it might have otherwise been. At this point Long does not look like much of a prospect and I’d be surprised if he ever sees more than a token stint in the Majors.

3 (105) – Justin Edwards, LHP, Olympia HS, Orlando
Stats to date: 15-19, 5.09 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, 186K/86BB, 252 IP

Edwards was drafted out of a Florida high school boasting an impressive three pitch arsenal, but it didn’t serve him well at the start of his pro career. After signing, Edwards was assigned to Bristol where he posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Walks were his main problem with his BB/9 rate sitting at 3.6. Edwards’ 2007 season wasn’t much better, but at 19 and pitching in A ball, he was pretty young for his level. Justin missed all of the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery but he recovered quickly and was able to take the mound again to start the 2009 season. Justin has been much better at limiting the walks this year posting a BB/9 rate of 1.4 as opposed to his career average of 3.1, he also has an impressive K/BB rate of 4.00. Because of the TJ surgery it is difficult to grade this pick as we haven’t seen enough from Edwards to get a true feel for his potential.

4 (135) – Tyler Reves, C, Texas Tech
Stats to date: .243 AVG, .297 OBP, .365 SLG, 33.1 XB%

Tyler Reves played just two years in the White Sox system before being released. He was drafted, believe it or not, as an offense-first catcher with scouts stating that his bat would have to carry him to the bigs as his defense behind the plate was severely lacking. Obviously we now know that the bat wasn’t much to rave about either.

5 (165) – John Shelby, 2B/OF, Kentucky
Stats to date: .283 AVG, .335 OBP, .475 SLG, 40.9 XB%

Shelby went undrafted out of high school but flashed some promising tools at Kentucky leading him to be drafted in the 5th round. After signing he was assigned to Great Falls and he showed us more or less exactly what was expected of him, a good speed/power combination with a lot of strikeouts and not a lot of walks. Shelby’s next two years went roughly the same as his first except with one big change; he was moved from 2B to the outfield. Shelby is one of this organization’s top 10-15 prospects and there is a lot of potential in him, but there is also a lot not to like about his game. I think of Shelby as a lesser Chris Young, he doesn’t have Young’s defensive ability and his power potential is a tick lower but the rest of their game is similar, they can both steal a lot of bases, they both strike out too much and neither of them walk enough, resulting in low batting averages and low on-base percentages. Shelby could become a starting ML outfielder but I consider him more as a potential 4th outfielder and pinch runner, but nonetheless, this pick should be considered a good one. Getting a possible starter in the 5th round without going over slot on the signing bonus is a job well done on the scout’s side.

6 (195) – Brian Omogrosso, RHP, Indiana State
Stats to date: 18-15, 3.98 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 226K/137BB, 273.2 IP

Omogrosso’s first stop as a pro was Kannapolis, where he pitched out of the bullpen with good results, he posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but his peripherals were less impressive with his strikeout rate sitting at just 5.6 K/9. Since them Omogrosso’s K rate has improved and his Minor League average currently sits at 7.4 K/9, but his walk rate over the same time span is an unacceptable 4.5 BB/9, this must improve if he wants to make it out of the minors. I like him more as a reliever going forward because I’m not convinced he has the overall repertoire to be an effective starter and his fastball/slider combo should play much better out of the ‘pen. It will be interesting to see how he handles the more advanced AAA hitters (so far not that well), will Omogrosso be able to improve that walk rate or will he be exposed as a non-prospect?

7 (225) – Justin Cassel, RHP, UC Irvine
Stats to date: 21-17, 3.55 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 225K/113BB, 329.1 IP

Cassel had a strong career at UC Irvine but was not drafted until the 7th round because there is, and was, nothing special about his game. He throws three average pitches with average control. Cassel was polished as a pitcher coming out of college, which is what allowed him to breeze through the lower minors, but his lack of a strikeout pitch or overwhelming ground ball rate means it is unlikely that he becomes a Major Leaguer. Expect Cassel to bounce around between AA and AAA for most, if not the rest of, his career.

8 (255) – Kent Gerst, CF, Fort Zumwalt West HS, MO
Stats to date: .257 AVG, .333 OBP, .345 SLG, 20.1 XB%

Gerst’s game is all about the speed, he’s very quick (a 70 on the 20-80 scale) and he’s also a strong defensive player but there is little else to his game at this point in time. He has a similar skill set to Jacoby Ellsbury, leading to comparisons between the two a few years ago, but Gerst hasn’t developed much since that point and has stagnated as a prospect. Gerst is still young so there is time for him to improve but if he is the next Ellsbury, I would have expected to see more from him in three years of pro ball.

9 (285) – Chris Duffy, 3B, Cypress Creek HS, Orlando DID NOT SIGN

10 (315) – Lee Cruz, OF, Tampa
Stats to date: .261 AVG, .300 OBP, .424 SLG, 40.5 XB%

Despite always being very old for his age Lee Cruz has posted underwhelming numbers. His extra base hit % is decent which has led to a reasonable .163 IsoP, but his plate discipline is very weak. For his minor league career he has over 3 strikeouts for every walk and that’s just not going to work. However, this is the 10th round and when you’re committed to not going over slot to sign players you end up with a lot of Lee Cruz’s.

Other notable selections:

22 (675) – Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, Saddleback CC
Stats to date: 18-11, 2.52 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 187K/73BB, 199.2 IP

Dealt to the Yankee’s in the Swisher trade (you could argue we gave up the two best players in that deal), Kanekoa shows a lot of promise for a relief pitching prospect. Texeira has flashed very strong K rates thanks largely to a wicked slider which could result in a career as a back of the ‘pen reliever. This was a very good pick at this point of the draft.

31 (945) – Stefan Gartrell, OF, San Francisco
Stats to date: .283 AVG, .371 OBP, .464 SLG, 36.1 XB%

Gartrell has really emerged onto the prospect map for me this season with his much improved power. Before this year I considered him more of an organizational filler, but now I think he has legitimate big league potential. Gartrell still leaves a lot to be desired in the plate discipline department, and it is this lack of control that probably limits his ceiling to an all or nothing power option off the bench (think a poor man’s Nelson Cruz). If he continues to improve like he has been this year he could become a solid 4th outfielder.

If there’s anyone else you think I should have included just post the name in the comment box and I’ll edit them in.

Overview:
If I’m grading the draft I’d give it a D-, there were some solid picks, particularly Shelby, Omogrosso and Gartrell but there were an awful lot of very bad picks. Of the 50 players selected by the Sox 27 signed, so far none of them have reached the Majors. Only three of them are on my top 30 prospects list with just one of them in the top 10 (Shelby, at 9). That’s not good enough. Fortunately, the changes have been swift and we now have Doug Laumann back in charge. Doug was the scouting director between 2000 and 2003 before being demoted to pro scout. Let the good times roll in.