The highly anticipated (by me anyway) 2009 update of Sean Smith’s TotalZone defensive metric is finally here, you can see all the numbers for yourself, updated through July 31st over at minorleaguesplits.com. Now this is by no means a perfect defensive metric, but it is easily the best readily available one for the minor leagues and as always many conventional thoughts, wisdoms and scouts’ views are contradicted by these numbers. As a statistics fan I tend to lean on the side of the numbers, if not only for the reason that they see everything and not just the handful of plays that scouts happen to be in attendance for. Brief intro over, I will now take a look at some of the White Sox top positional players (catchers and 2009 draftees excluded) and compare the numbers to the general opinions of the scouts.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the first name I searched was Dayan Viciedo. Dayan’s been branded a butcher by many and for good reason as he’s racked up a substantial number of errors, but our man on the scene JPN wrote in his inaugural blog post that he thought the branding of “butcher” was harsh, and that Viciedo is more than capable of making the plays at 3B, so who do the numbers agree with, JPN, or the general consensus?
So far this season Dayan Viciedo comes in at +3 runs above the average Double-A fielder at 3B, which pro-rates out to +6 runs above average per 150 games. This was pleasantly surprising to me and even if we use an MLE translation he still comes out as a respectable -3 runs below average if he were playing in the Majors today, not bad for somebody branded by the scouts as too big and too slow to stick at third.

Next up is Jordan Danks. Jordan is considered by many to be a very good defensive centre fielder, thanks in a large part to his speed and athleticism but also to his sound baseball instincts. Jordan has split his time between two levels this year and with Winston-Salem he was actually a -7 runs below average fielder in CF (in very limited playing time), with Birmingham the number is better, with him coming in at +1 run above the average Double-A CF, and last year at Kannapolis he was a +2 runs above average. Still, I must say I am a little disappointed by these numbers and perhaps our hopes of perennial gold glove defense from Jordan should be tempered. I’d be willing to bet that the -7 defense at W-S ends up being an anomaly but as of right now it’s too early to tell.

John Shelby III is next on the list. From what I’ve heard John is supposed to be a passable centre fielder but more of a corner outfielder and left fielder in particular due to his less than stellar arm strength, but here’s what the numbers say.
Splitting his time between CF and LF, Shelby is a combined +12 runs above average and his +10 runs in CF project out to a ridiculous +28 runs above average per 150 games (+15 is considered outstanding). Last season Shelby was +4 runs above average again splitting his time between CF and LF and in 2007 he went a combined -20 runs below average (-10 at 2B, -9 in CF, -1 in RF). This either tells us that he’s made rapid improvements in the outfield, which is certainly plausible, or that the numbers are off somewhere down the line. If his numbers this year are accurate it only enhances his chances of becoming a 4th outfielder or better.

The next guy I haven’t been able to find much of a report on and that’s C.J. Retherford. C.J. recently made the transition to 2nd base so it will be interesting to see how he’s doing. This season at 2B C.J.’s been worth +3 runs, which is solid for someone new to the position. The previous two seasons he was a combined +13 runs at 3B, so he has been a good defender and I could see him becoming a pretty good defensive 2B with some more experience at the position.

The final guy who I’m going to do an in depth look at is Buddy Bell’s pet project Brent Morel, Buddy has been raving about Morels defensive ability, and if anyone’s going to know how to pick it at the hot corner it’s going to be him, so lets see if the numbers agree with Buddy. Last season between two levels Morel was a combined -2, but this season he has been a lot better at +5 runs which projects out to +9 runs above average per 150 games. The transition from college to the Minors could be one of the reasons for the sub par numbers in 2008 (the same can also apply for the other players), and while the stats this year don’t indicate a future gold glover they are pretty solid. I still question whether he’ll hit enough for third base though.

So what exactly should we take from these numbers? Probably not a lot in the case of Danks or Viciedo, players who have not been in the system long, as you really need at least two years of cohesive data in order to make any kind of accurate assessment, but since we only have one years worth of data for those guys that’s all we can go by. For players who have been in the system longer i.e. Retherford, and have put up consistently above average numbers, I think it would be reasonable to expect them to become average or better Major League defenders. A lot of people are vehemently against these advanced defensive statistics, and I imagine this is party due to the fact that they often disagree with the general consensus, but when the logic behind them is sound (as it is with TZ, UZR and +/-), I see no reason not to embrace them.