Favorite Pick

SC: Ryan Buch
I think the Sox got great value with Buch in the 8th round. He’s got the potential to become a mid-rotation starter due to his solid three pitch mix of a low to mid 90’s fastball, excellent curve and improving change. The command of his fastball can be erratic which is what could prevent him from reaching his potential but he’s definitely the prime candidate to be next year’s Dexter Carter or Dan Hudson. I think Buch had value even in the second round so to draft him in the 8th and sign him for slot money looks like a great job by the Sox. Lot’s of projectability here.

DS: Kyle Bellamy
In terms of best value at the round the player was taken, I really like Bellamy. He dominated at Miami in the tough ACC for 2 years and has the stuff and deception with his sidearm delivery to fly through the minors (he is already doing very well in Kannapolis). His high 80s fastball has good sink and his slider is effective. His strikeout to walk ratio is spectacular so far, which is somewhat expected because he was a very advanced reliever out of college. It might be generous to say his upside is as a setup man, but chances are good he will be the first member of this White Sox draft class to make it to the Majors.

Least Favorite Pick

SC: Justin Collop
There are definitely things to like about Collop; he’s athletic, has a fast arm and three workable pitches when he’s on but he’s been very inconsistent, his command isn’t good and his secondary pitches fell off during the second half of the season resulting in Collop getting hit hard. There’s too much uncertainty and not enough upside in Collop for me to call this pick anything other than a reach. I think Collop is the type of prospect that you take a flier on in the 10-14 round range, not the 6th.

DS: Matt Hopps
I’ll put Hopps in the never to interview with us category. He signed for well under slot and has only been pitching for a few years so there is projectability for his age (23), but I think the odds are against him more than the rest of the top 10 picks. The term least favorite fits best because I don’t dislike the pick, it was the 9th round after all, but I feel that there is the least to like about Hopps relative to other somewhat high picks.

Biggest Sleeper

SC: Dan Black
The 14th rounder Black hasn’t had the best of results in the early going, but I really like his combination of plus power and fantastic plate discipline. He doesn’t have a position and has been playing a lot of first base, it’s unfortunate that he couldn’t stick at the position he played a lot in college, that being catcher, because then he really would be a prospect. But as it is I believe in the bat, even at first, so hopefully Dan Black doesn’t prove me wrong.

DS: Kyle Colligan
Colligan is an athletic outfielder, something the Sox seemed to grab a lot of this draft, and has done well at Great Falls this year. He did well in the Big 12 at Texas A&M and can play a solid centerfield while hitting for some pop. He’s been getting on base at a great clip with the Voyagers this season, living up to my own expectations of him. He is an advanced hitter that shouldn’t have too much trouble with A ball pitching in 2010. I’m not expecting him to set the world on fire, but he should do well. For a 12th rounder, I think he has the ability to be an under the radar prospect that does well without much notice.

Most Likely to Bust

SC: Trayce Thompson
Thompson was probably my second favourite pick of the whole draft behind Buch, but there is a huge amount of bust potential with Trayce. He’s very raw and has a long swing leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are two big red flags for a prospect, but there is also an awful lot to like about Trayce. If he puts it all together Thompson could become a prototypical right fielder with great power, arm strength and solid defense, however it will almost certainly take him a long time to get there.

DS: Trayce Thompson
He is the highest high schooler the Sox selected and he is widely considered a raw prospect. I love the pick and the upside, but by definition a raw player is more likely to bust than most. He’s a ways away from the Majors if he gets there so fans will need to be patient with his development. It will be interesting to see if Thompson starts next year in Kannapolis or if the Sox are going to take it slowly with him and have him in extended spring training before rookie ball.

First to the Majors

SC: Kyle Bellamy
Bellamy was a dominant reliever for the Hurricanes. He’s very polished and gets lots of ground balls with a good amount of strikeouts from his two-seam fastball and sweeping slider, both of which he has great command of. He was described by one prospect evaluator as “Death on right handers” and ultimately may have to settle for a job as a ROOGY, although he could potentially become a late inning reliever, possibly even a closer. Unlike last years supposed fast riser Drew O’Neil, Bellamy made light work of rookie ball and I don’t think an assignment to Birmingham for the start of next year would be too aggressive, although Winston-Salem is his more likely destination.

DS: Kyle Bellamy
My reasoning for this is mostly why I said he was my favorite pick. He was a first-team All-American in college and has the stuff to dominate A ball hitters. Great sink on his pitches leads to a great groundball rate and he has been striking guys out so far in the minors. Sidearm guys seem to move quickly in general and I don’t think Bellamy will be an exception to that.

The One That Got Away

SC: Bryan Morgado
There were better prospects that the Sox failed to sign but Morgado would have filled the biggest need, that need being left-handed pitching prospects which aren’t still 4 years away. Morgado struggled a lot with his command while at Tennessee which stopped him pitching up to his stuff (he has a first round arm). The White Sox don’t exactly have the best reputation for developing prospects but they’ve done well just recently and it would have been interesting to see what they could have done with Morgado.

DS: Justin Jones
Morgado is the easier pick here because he was drafted in the 3rd round, but I really started to like Jones based on the things I was reading about him after the draft. Word was his velocity was improving and he supposedly had a very good curveball. He seemed like a high upside pick for the 7th round, but he probably realized that too and decided college would improve his draft stock 3 years from now. It’s hard to argue with that and the White Sox have been known to redraft players (Chris Getz, Jordan Danks, Ricky Brooks) so maybe we will see the same with Jones down the road. It seems like the Sox weren’t going to go over slot on any of their draftees, which is acceptable as long as the talent they did sign makes up for it.

Overall Thoughts

SC: I liked a lot of picks that were made but I wonder if there’s enough impact talent here because outside of Jared Mitchell, Thompson, Josh Phegley and Buch I don’t see anyone who could become a significantly above average starter. The Sox really could have done with signing one or more of the Justin Jones, Bryan Morgado and Dane Williams trio after dealing a lot of their pitching depth in the Peavy trade, but unfortunately they were not able to, so they will have to wait for either off-season trades or next year’s draft to plug this hole in the system. I do like the direction that the organisation seems to be taking with their draft mentality, moving away from the “safer” picks such as Broadway and McCulloch a few years ago and moving towards higher risk, higher reward picks such as Mitchell and Thompson.

DS: The Sox clearly went after athletes in this draft. Mitchell, Thompson, Colligan and Nick Ciolli all played center field with their teams this year. The Sox could use some infield depth in the minors now, but it’s good to see outfield athleticism as a priority. I like David Holmberg and Matt Heidenreich as projectable arms, but there weren’t any good polished starting pitchers signed by the Sox. Morgado would have been helped that, but I’m worried about his control. It’s way too early to say much of anything about this draft in terms of quality yet, but on paper it’s easier to like the hitters (even in the lower rounds) more than the pitching. Though it will be interesting to see how the top high school picks develop.

The above-slot signings from around the league have been flowing in at a rapid rate the last couple days and that will continue, but there has been little news on the White Sox front. Four notable picks remain unsigned and third rounder Bryan Morgado is the only one from college. Justin Jones (7th round), Dane Williams (15th) and Brian Goodwin (17th) are three talented high school prospects with strong college commitments.

Morgado has some unique circumstances surrounding him. He pitched for Tennessee last season, but wasn’t going to return to the Vols whether he signed or not. He improved his stock and leverage by pitching well at the Cape Cod League (32.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 47 K, 15 BB). Obviously the control will have to improve, but this helps put to rest some of the concerns about his struggles in the spring. Adding another twist is that Tennessee now is trying to get the lefty to come back to school for what would be his junior season. The Sox will have to go over slot for Morgado and have supposedly offered such, but it looks like a coin flip right now.

Jones, another left-handed pitcher, appears set to honor his commitment to Cal. It’s not completely over, but the Sox seem very unlikely to sign the northern California product. Williams is likely to honor his North Carolina State commitment as well. The right-handed pitcher was always expected to do so unless the Sox wowed him with an offer and it appears they have not done so. Goodwin has long said he wanted to go to North Carolina and it is nothing new to say the centerfielder will not be turning pro.

As it stands, Morgado is the only of the four that the Sox have a good chance of signing. The White Sox lost two young lefties in the Jake Peavy trade so it would be nice to replenish the spot in the minor league system. We don’t know enough about the negotiations with Morgado to make a good judgment, but it sounds positive enough that the Sox could strike a deal. However, it would be a stunner to see any of the high schoolers sign, which is slightly disappointing because Jones had some positive write-ups on him following his senior year.

The minor surprise is that he signed for just under $30,000 over slot. The numbers floating around were a little bit higher. Thompson is the first high draft pick of the White Sox to sign for over slot this year.

It is expected that Thompson will report to Bristol to begin his professional career. Expectations should be reserved for his opening stint because he was regarded as a very raw player taken on the basis of his impressive upside and potential.

With Thompson’s signing, the highest remaining unsigned pick is 3rd rounder Bryan Morgado. Morgado has been doing well in the Cape Cod League this summer. In 27 innings, he has 39 strikeouts to 12 walks with a 1.67 ERA. This kind of production will likely require an above slot bonus for Morgado as well. The estimated slot for Morgado’s 102nd spot is just under $320,000. 7th rounder Justin Jones, a high school pitcher, also remains unsigned.

Thompson, a 6’4” 200 pound righty, is from Rancho Santa Margarita, California and had committed to UCLA. He is a high upside pick with a projectable frame. He is a great athlete that is considered a 5-tool type prospect. For more information on him, read what we said when he was first selected.

Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune is saying he will report to Bristol. It will be interesting to see the signing bonus Thompson will receive because he was thought to be getting an above slot offer. The slot bonus for the pick is just under $600,000. It was expected soon after draft day that Thompson would sign, but it was no surprise to see the negotiations take a while.

Thompson was left off of our midseason prospect rankings because he hadn’t signed yet, but would have slotted in at 13th if we included him in our final list. Thompson could quickly become one of the top prospects in the system.

UPDATE: The weekend has come and gone and there has been no extra word on Thompson, but it’s common for MLB to sit on above slot signing bonuses until closer to the deadline. It’s an odd practice, but it would explain why the contract has not become official yet.

The reason for this was summed up perfectly by Jim Callis of Baseball America (see below) and each of the players listed above fit into the category describe by Callis (as they are all believed to be asking for “above slot”).

It has been 12 days since a first-round draft pick signed, and 20 of the 32 have yet to agree to terms. Don’t expect those numbers to change much in the next two to three weeks. Most if not all of the first-rounders who were going to sign for MLB’s slot recommendations have done so, and MLB is going to drag its heels on approving deals that far exceed its guidelines.

This means that the Sox might have actually reached deals with the prospects in question but those deals have not been announced as the league tends to sit on above-slot offers. Or the Sox might just be waiting patiently to see if the asking price drops before making their significant offer.

What we can tell you from what we’ve heard:
- The Sox appear confident that they’ll be able to sign Trayce Thompson and Justin Jones.

- Bryan Morgado appears to be a wild-card. Initially the Sox had felt he’d be an easy sign as he was a college player without a college (Tennessee wasn’t going to keep him) but as a draft eligible sophomore who has opened up some scouts’ eyes at the Cape, his contract demands and leverage have been higher than expected.

- Brian Goodwin and Dane Williams will go down to the wire. The odds aren’t good, but the Sox are going to give it a fighting shot.

Mitchell, a speedy outfielder and former WR at LSU, will report to Kannapolis and is expected to make his professional debut in Thursday’s game against Lakewood.

Mitchell enjoyed a successful career at LSU, with his crowning moment coming when he was named the Most Outstanding Player of this year’s College World Series. He’s still quite raw as a baseball player, but if all goes well we could see him on the South Side in two years.

Terms of the deal have not yet been released, but the slot bonus for the 23rd pick is estimated at $1.26m. Update: Baseball America reporting the signing bonus is $1.2m.

Anthony Mazzuca: Name 1 sleeper in the Sox’s system that isn’t a top 5/10 prospect.
Kevin Goldstein: Just talked to a scout today who saw Dexter Carter over the weekend and really liked what he saw — big, very athletic, low 90s with a very good breaking ball, and I still like John Shelby.
AM: Seems like Shelby has sort of taken a step back after a nice 2008…
KG: Yeah, Double-A has proven to be a bit much, but he can still play all three outfields, has a good approach, a bit of speed and pop. I wish he was LH, he’d have a surefire future as a 4th OF.
AM: Did you expect more out of Jon Gilmore (.600 OPS at Kanny) this season?
KG: I did, but I really don’t anymore. That Kannapolis lineup is really ugly, not much to talk about there.

AM: Let’s jump to the draft, then come back to some individuals. How did you rank the Sox’s draft? Best pick and the worst pick?
KG: I didn’t do a ranking of the drafts specifically, but in general, I was a big fan of their selections, especially Mitchell and Thompson. I thought they took Phegley too high, but if they believe he really can catch, it’s understandable. I think what you saw was the continuing shift to tools and upside, a philosophy that Sox officials confirmed to me before the draft.
AM: How far away is Jared Mitchell? For a polished college player, there seems to be talk of a rather large learning curve.
KG: He’s a raw, toolsy college player with a ton of upside, but it will require patience. He’s certainly not going to move like Beckham, for example.
AM: Incredibly early, but what is the most realistic ETA you could put on it, if everything went right?
KG: Late ‘11? Something around there. He’s a tools guy, and those guys sometimes just click, and when the explode, they move very, very quickly, or it just never happens.There are certainly aspects of his game that need to improve.
AM: Anything in particular?
KG: Well, there’s a lot of swing and miss in him. You’re never going to turn him into Ichiro, but they do need to be curbed, and that’s going to come with a better plan, and better pitch recognition.
AM: Staying with the overall system, What effect has Buddy Bell had?
KG: It’s really hard to give credit (or blame) to any one guy. Success and failure in scouting and player development is really an organizational thing, and you are literally talking about hundreds of people. That said, Bell is very well respected.
AM: It just seems like the organization, after the 2006 draft, which was a disaster, have really taken a new approach to things, as you touched on earlier.
KG: Yeah, and that’s system wide. There’s been changes in personnel and philosophy, and both have been good things.
AM: Staying with the system as a whole, If you were doing a mid-season rank of where the minor league systems are, where would the Sox rank? Just for an idea of where they are, give me a number with and w/o Beckham and Poreda, two guys up with the team right now.
KG: Well, I had them 24th entering the year. Clearly, they’re up from there. If you include Beckham, Poreda, they’re definitely in the upper half, a top 15 system, but without them, and now with Allen gone, they more somewhere in the middle, but that’s for all of the right reasons.

AM: What is your view on the Brandon Allen trade? Too much for Pena, or have Sox fans maybe overrated what Allen really is?
KG: It’s funny, when the trade happened, I went through my notes and found three different scouts who had seen him this year. One thought he was an above-average every day big league first baseman. One thought he was more of a second division player. One thought he was a platoon player at best. So the reviews were really varied.
AM: Could it be a move to open up a spot for Viciedo at 1B?
KG: It was a move to get a dependable power righty in the pen, I don’t think they thought much about how it effected other prospects, and Viciedo at first would be pretty troubling, as he’s not even hitting enough for a third baseman right now.
AM: Any views on Pena himself?
KG: I do wonder if he’s really the answer. On a pure scouting level, he’s always shined, but the results have always been inconsistent. I saw it as only a minor upgrade, but you take what you can get.
AM: I just brought him up, so will stick with him. What kind of future in baseball do you project for Dayan Viciedo?
KG: Honestly, reviews have been very disappointing. Still a bit out of shape, swing at anything approach, not much power. Because of his age and where he’s coming from, you have to give him more time than others to make adjustments. If anything, I think it’s possible that they just started him at too high a level.
AM: Has there been any talk of the culture change playing a role, or just totally overmatched at the plate?
KG: Specifically on Viciedo, I haven’t heard that, but with the Cubans, it really is a different kind of culture shock than you get with most international players, and it really does need to be taken into account. It’s a massive, massive change in everything about Viciedo’s world. But as far as pure baseball goes, the approach is the biggest thing — he’s chasing everything.

AM: Overall, should White Sox fans be generally excited for what is in store for the future, or should we temper our excitement? With the way the farm system has produced in the last 5 years, this looks to be the best crop of prospects the Sox have had in quite some time…
KG: Sure, but it was kind of nowhere to go but up, no?
AM: Very true. I feel like there are a good amount of Sox fans maybe overrating the system because they aren’t used to having some high end prospects in the system.
KG: Look, I think they should be excited for Beckham alone — how often to teams develop true stars? It’s really pretty rare, but yes, I’d be much happier than I was. It’s not an elite system, but there’s some good stuff here.
AM: Tyler Flowers. Should he be close to untouchable? Is he going to stay behind the plate?
KG: You know, I’ve never been a fan of the term untouchable. Is anyone REALLY untouchable? If the Jays wanted him in Halladay deal, wouldn’t you want the Sox to do that?
AM: That’s why I wont say totally untouchable. If Pujols was offered for Beckham, he isn’t untouchable anymore.
KG: I think the catching future is still debatable, he’s just so huge a sluggish back there. That said, there has been some progress — they’ve shortened his release a bit, and the results are encouraging.
AM: Would his bat alone still project him to be a plus major league hitter?(if he had to move out of catcher)
KG: Yes, the bat is going to play.

AM: Whats your take overall on the Halladay news over the last 48 hours?
KG: Well, it makes sense for the Jays certainly, with this year AND 2010 under contract, his value is about as high as it can be, and he’s going to leave Toronto, so I do think there’s a good chance he’ll get moved.
AM: Will the Sox be in it, even with Williams comments yesterday about lacking attendance?
KG: I would saw they’re in the race, but not a favorite.
AM: What type of package would it have to be?
KG: It would be a ton. I think they’d ask for Beckham for sure, but if that was off the table, they would probably need at least two, maybe three of Poreda/Flowers/Danks.
AM: If you are the Sox, do you pull the trigger on a deal with those 3?
KG: Would I? Probably.
AM: Take on Jordan Danks?
KG: What’s not to like? Big, athletic, good approach, gap power, good runner, plays a nice CF. I don’t think he’ll ever be a true power guy, but I think he’ll be a solid every day center fielder, which is pretty good for an organization that has been absolutely desperate for one for a long time now.
AM: Top of the order guy?
KG: Yeah, could be an ideal No. 2 hitter type.

AM: Changing the topic a bit, How do professional organizations view your publication? What feedback have you received?
KG: They all read us, and like anything else, some like us, some don’t. We’re certainly a highly respected name in the industry, I think our work speaks for itself, and teams take my calls, so there’s that. I talk to tons of scouts on an anonymous level (pretty much every day) about what they’re seeing and what they think.
AM: What is your relationship with the Sox in general?
KG: Solid. I talk to White Sox scouts and front office people on a regular basis.
AM: That actually should just about do it from my end. Can’t thank you enough for taking out the time.
KG: More than happy to help.

We again would like to thank Kevin Goldstein for providing us with some great information on the entire White Sox organization.

Kyle, a four year contributor at Texas A&M, had success each year of his college career, not an easy feat in the Big 12. While rookie ball certainly has it’s fair share of players dominating because they are more experienced, Colligan is a player worth keeping an eye on because of his athleticism, speed and defense.

He was a first-team Big 12 outfielder his junior year and hit 39 HR and stole 41 bases over his last three seasons with the Aggies. He slipped to the 12th round because his senior year was a dropoff from his previous year-by-year improvement. Still, Colligan is a hard worker that plays good defense at a premium defensive position.

He has good on-base skills and speed, but doesn’t project to be a major stolen base threat as a pro. An early comparison that comes to mind is a Ricardo Nanita type, but maybe with more pop in his bat and a better defender. Nanita also lit up the Pioneer League back in 2003, but his career quickly stalled and is currently floundering in AA. At 22 years old, Colligan will have to move through the system quickly and the Sox tend to push older college players like him anyway.

He was a leadoff hitter for the Aggies, but has been used in the middle of the Voyagers’ lineup, which says something about how much power he possesses. He doesn’t project to have massive power, but he is a strong hitter that could have above average power for a centerfielder. The encouraging thing about Colligan is that his power seems to have translated with wood bats so far.

Colligan was one of quite a few athletic outfielders taken by the Sox in the 2009 draft. 1st rounder Jared Mitchell, 2nd rounder Trayce Thompson and 17th rounder Brian Goodwin are spectacular athletes that show that Kenny Williams doesn’t want to have a slow team that lacks a leadoff hitter anytime in the near future. Colligan doesn’t have the upside of the others mentioned and shouldn’t be on any top prospects list currently, but he has some potential and for a 12th round pick he could end up being a good value.

Ciolli was drafted in the 10th round which is right around where he was expected to be selected. Some publications thought he could go as high as the 6th, but most had him pegged around the 10th round. He played a lot of centerfield in college but is thought of as a corner outfielder at the next level due to a lack of speed, and conclusively, defensive range. It is this move that really hurts his prospect status because his bat is unlikely to play in a corner. Ciolli shows solid doubles power, but he hasn’t hit many home runs. He did hit for a very high average, though, at Indiana State, but his K:BB rate was an unremarkable 37:18. There are some holes in Ciolli’s swing which will need to be worked out and he has a tendency to get a little long at times.

There are things to like about Ciolli. He flashes solid tools across the board, but ultimately his lack of power and lack of walks mean his ceiling is probably as a 4th outfielder. Some scouts think the power will come and that he can develop into a solid #7 hitter, but I’d question whether a #7 hitter at left field or right field is really a starting caliber player because your corner outfielders should be two of your better hitters. At this point in the draft I think it was a solid but unspectacular pick, Ciolli certainly won’t make or break this draft class.

When doing my research on Black I found it very hard to find any negatives about him, and believe me I tried. His numbers are fantastic, he was a career .313 hitter at Purdue with lots of power and a phenomenal ability to get on base with him tying a Big 10 record for walks in a season with 62 this year. Then I started delving into the scouting reports expecting to find lots of negatives on his bat speed but nothing, all the reports I read indicated the same things as the numbers, plus raw power, a great ability to get on base and also a very strong arm. So this is where Black really started puzzling me as the reports and numbers don’t match the 14th round draft grade, so I sent some E-mails out to people in the industry to try and dig up anything and thus far the only negative report I’ve received was from Baseball America’s John Manuel (via Aaron Fitt, thanks for that!) with him saying “The feeling is that he doesn’t have a position. No scouts loved him and I didn’t put him high on the Indiana list. I just don’t think teams believe in him much and my guess is he put out a higher number than teams were willing to go for.”

Black may end up nothing more than a Jeremy Brown-lite but at the same time it’s very possible that he’s just flown under the scouts’ radar due to a purported lack of athleticism or projectability and it’s safe to say that he’s on my list of sleepers from the ’09 draft.