Lance Broadway

Prior to Lance Broadway’s trade to the Mets (in return for Ramon Castro) he actually put up some decent numbers at Charlotte including a 3.75 SO/BB rate and an 8.4 SO/9, by far the best strikeout rate he had posted since his debut season. The ERA was high but there was reason to be encouraged. After the trade, however, Broadway was awful, the strikeouts plummeted, the walks rose as did the ERA and WHIP. Broadway has made several appearances with the Mets but his performances have been weak, he’s giving up an extreme amount of hits, which either says his stuff is very hittable or he has been very unlucky. Time is running out for this former first round pick and he will need to make some significant improvements next year if he wishes to be successful.

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen’s trade has been spoken about often, by a lot of people including me, here, so I’ll try and keep his review brief. After being traded to Arizona for Tony Pena, Allen went on a 38 game tear at Reno showing great power and strike zone judgement. Soon after, Allen received the call from the D’Backs and thus far has done exactly what I would have expected from him, and that is hit for power and strike out… a lot. I still don’t think Allen will become a star but he is very capable of becoming a solid regular in the Majors and he has had a very good season.

Aaron Poreda

Aaron Poreda’s season prior to his trade was going quite well, his K rate had spiked to 9.1 SO/9 with Birmingham after a somewhat disappointing 6.6 SO/9 in 2008 and his ERA sat at an impressive 2.38. After the trade, however, his control disappeared completely as he walked 37 batters in 32.2 IP, leaving him with a disastrous 0.81 SO/BB and 7.16 ERA. Reports indicate that Poreda’s slider has made significant improvements over the last year and the limited Pitch f/x data we have of him would seem to agree but his control still needs a lot of work, as does his change. Poreda looks like a definite reliever to me at this point.

Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard was traded to the Padres off the back of two straight 8 inning, 1 run performances which led to many people hailing him as a potential frontline starter, I remained unconvinced, and thus far he has performed more of less how I would have expected with an ERA in the mid 4’s. His strikeout rate has been better than expected and his walk rate worse than expected. I think both his K rate and BB rates will fall slightly next year, but overall it should result in his ERA remaining around the 4.50 range. I still see a career as a useful backend starter for Richard as his stuff just isn’t good enough for him to be more than that.

Dexter Carter

I noted Dexter Carter as the wild card of the Peavy trade at the time it happened but so far he his post-trade performances have been disappointing, and like Poreda his control has vanished. An awful 21 inning stretch with Fort Wayne, which included a 6.4 BB/9 and a 12.86 ERA doesn’t sway me from my projection of him as a potential mid rotation starter, but the control and changeup must both improve for this to happen. Carter’s fastball/curve combo could be enough for him to make it in the bullpen if he can’t improve the aforementioned aspects of his game.

Adam Russell

Like Dexter Carter, Adam Russell hasn’t pitched much since being traded and walks have continued to be a problem for Russell in the limited action he has seen. Control has always been a weakness for Russell but he was doing a good job of limiting the free bases prior to his trade, but as with several prospects who were traded to San Diego, his control fell apart and he walked 15 batters in 20.2 IP. Russell is capable of making a name for himself in a Major League bullpen but he still has lots of work to do before that becomes a reality.

Michael Dubee

Michael Dubee was more of an after thought when he was traded to Pittsburgh in return for Andy Phillips all the way back in April, but he has opened eyes since the trade. In 23 appearances with Lynchburg he posted a sparkling ERA (1.05) and SO/BB rate (17.33) with 54 K’s to just 3 BB’s. At 23, he was old for the Carolina League and after his promotion to Double-A the numbers tailed off, but they still remain good as his K/BB rate sat at 2.80 and his ERA at 2.91. Dubee will probably need to spend all of 2010 in the Minors but if continues to pitch like this we’ll be seeing him pitch out of a Major League bullpen sooner rather than later.

Stats accurate as of 9/17

The Birmingham Barons were one of Minor League Baseball’s best teams this year and their 92-47 record was the best in the team’s history. Their roster at the start of the season was stacked with many of the organizations top prospects including Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Allen, Dayan Viciedo, Aaron Poreda and John Shelby, and as you would have expected, they made light work of opposing Southern League teams. Promotions, trades and call-ups removed many of their best players from the first couple of months of the season but they were replaced, and replaced well, by players such as Christian Marrero, Jordan Danks and Charlie Shirek, added to that, mainstays such as John Ely and C.J. Retherford ensured that the Barons didn’t skip a beat in the second half. Now ready to make a run for the Southern League crown, the Barons will start their best of 5 series with Jacksonville Suns on Thursday.

The Winston-Salem Dash make their way into the playoff largely thanks to playing in a very weak Carolina League South. You may think that’s a little unfair, saying they’re only in the playoff due to playing in a weak division, but when you have a 4.30 ERA (2nd worst in the CAR) and are just midpack in runs scored, it’s unlikely that you were a good team. The Dash actually allowed more runs (642) than they scored (626). Winston-Salem’s offense has been led by a personal favourite of mine, Seth Loman, and postseason All-Star at 3B, Brent Morel, they also have Carolina League manager of the year Joe McEwing in their corner as well as a rotation led by Justin Edwards and Dylan Axelrod. The Dash will play their first postseason game tomorrow night against the Salem Red Sox, who are expected to start Daisuke Matsuzaka, and while anything can and often does happen in the playoffs, don’t expect the Carolina League crown to be coming the Dash’s way.

The Kannapolis Intimidators’ season has been all about their fantastic second half, in which they have a 45-24 record and a .652 winning percentage. Pitching was this team’s M.O. as they led the whole of the South Atlantic League with 530 runs allowed thanks to a rotation fronted by two of this organizations more intriguing starters, Charlie Leesman and Stephen Sauer (having Dexter Carter and Dan Hudson for a time didn’t hurt either). Even with losing one of it’s better arms, Charlis Burdie to the Dash, the Intimidators have one of the most formidable bullpen’s in the Minors, backed by Dan Remonowsky, ’09 draftee Kyle Bellamy and late season promotion Santos Rodriguez. Other ’09 draftees have played large parts in this team’s second half run, most notably two early round picks Jared Mitchell and Josh Phegley but also one later round pick, Joe Serafin. The Intimidators will play their first postseason game tomorrow against the Lakewood BlueClaws, with Charlie Leesman getting the start.

The final Sox affiliate to make the playoffs are the defending Pioneer League champions Great Falls, who swept their way past the Orem Owlz in the 2008 championship series behind the arms of Dan Hudson and Dexter Carter. This years Voyagers have been led by a steady dose of pitching and offense where the rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Pioneer League. The Voyagers have an old team for a rookie ball affiliate and as it stands Trayce Thompson is the only teen on their roster, he’s also roughly 2 ½ years younger than anyone else on the team, and it is partly for this reason that they don’t appear to be brimmed with future Major Leaguers. The Great Falls Voyagers will call upon it’s offensive stars Jose Vargas, Nick Ciolli, Johny Celis and Kyle Colligan to lead the team to victory when they start their playoff run against the Missoula Osprey’s this Saturday the 12th.

It took Allen a while to break out as a prospect. He was drafted by the White Sox out of high school in 2004 but didn’t emerge as a legitimate Major League prospect until 2008, when he put up a .278/.376/.555 line between Winston-Salem and Birmingham with 29 home runs and 32 doubles as a 22 year old. Allen didn’t get his first taste of Triple-A baseball until this year, 5 years after he was drafted. He struggled with Charlotte posting a .632 OPS, with 1 home run in 62 PA’s and 0 BB/ 13 SO, soon after, Allen was traded to Arizona and with that came a switch to Reno and the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

Brandon Allen’s 38 game stint with the Aces was incredibly impressive, his strikeout and walk rates were much improved as he had 20 BB/ 25 SO. He enjoyed a huge power surge knocking out 12 homers with a .621 slugging percentage and .317 IsoP. His BABIP was .324, which is a little higher than you might expect but nothing unreasonable. The one and only red flag that I see in his numbers is the home runs per balls in air rate; 18.8%, which is a lot higher than the average HR/BIA rate of around 6.5%, and is out of line with the rest of Allen’s career outside of his 6 week spell in Birmingham to end last season. The fact that this comes in a very small sample size, just like it did with Birmingham last year, is enough for me to think that this is an aberration, random fluctuation that can and does happen. I’ve always been of the opinion that Allen has good, but not great power and his 6 week homer fest in Reno hasn’t changed that.

I’ve never had any problem with trading Brandon Allen, first baseman with his skill set can be found easily and cheaply but that doesn’t mean this was a good trade. I liked the idea in principle, acquiring a cheap, effective middle reliever could have given us a lot of bullpen flexibility and even the opportunity to trade Bobby Jenks in the offseason but I don’t think Pena is that guy. Outside of one good season with Arizona in 2007 he has been a mediocre at best middle reliever, unable to live up to his potential and so in essence, what Kenny traded Brandon Allen for is a middle reliever we hope can be good, not a middle reliever that is good and I have a problem with that.

I think Brandon Allen is capable of settling into a career line in the region of .260/.330/.455, eerily similar to his Minor League line I realize, Allen should also be able to provide average defense at 1B due to his surprising athletic ability for a guy his size. This would make him a useful player, especially if you’re only paying him $400k a year, but it’s not a player you would lose sleep over trading. Brandon Allen will likely be a more valuable player over his career than Tony Pena, therefore making this trade a bad one in my eyes, but will the White Sox ever regret trading Brandon Allen? I doubt it.

I think a much debated topic this season has been the performance of John Shelby III. Many have been disappointed, which is understandable. I have been a fan of his since he was at Kentucky, so I was looking forward to seeing him play this year. His numbers this year have taken an obvious dip, but the two most significant factors that have caused that are the vastness of Regions Park and his batting average. Although he did hit a 408 foot home run to dead center the other day to lead off the game. My only concern is his average.

The good news is he’s been very productive with the hits he has gotten. He has been on a role in August and with a good finish should manage to get to 110 hits for the year. He’s still on pace to match his stolen base numbers from last year. He’s always has a chance to swipe two bags when he gets on base. Shelby has also lowered his strikeouts significantly, he struck out 98 times last year, but only 74 times this year.

I’ve mentioned this before, but I think that the White Sox have altered his approach offensively. In the past, he was a middle of the order, aggressive RBI guy. C.J. Retherford and Shelby carried the 2008 Winston-Salem club for most of the year. Especially after Brandon Allen’s promotion, they played their way into the Carolina League playoffs. For most of this year though, Shelby has spent significant time as the Barons leadoff hitter. The arrival of Jordan Danks from Winston-Salem put that on hold. So, a change of approach, plus inconsistent playing time and the fact that he’s hit just about everywhere in the lineup has slowed his progress.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Treybone return to Birmingham next year with a more focused approach offensively. He is only recently turned 24. He can be more of a leader, and the team won’t be as crowded as it has been this year. Stefan Gartrell certainly wasn’t hurt by repeating AA. In fact I expect him, Jim Gallagher, Christian Marrero, Brent Morel, Tyler Kuhn and possibly others to bring Birmingham another first half title in 2010.

I know I haven’t mentioned his defense, but there’s nothing to say. It’s flawless. He has been solid in either LF or CF in 2009. His arm strength is decidedly underrated. His adjustment to the outfield isn’t an issue whatsoever.

He definitely has a future as a major leaguer, but if I had to be honest, I’d say it’s as a National League player. His skill set to me just screams senior circuit. But, with the state of the game changing, he could be a valuable asset to a team in either league. He could be a younger Dewayne Wise as well as bring more offensive production to the table.

As usual, I will take requests for next week’s edition of JPNese at Soxtalk.

Cheers,
JPN

However, the team has a new look to it than it did on Opening Day and throughout most of the first half. It started with Gordon Beckham getting promoted in late May to AAA Charlotte. Then, a couple weeks later, Aaron Poreda made his way to the big leagues. In mid-June, Brandon Allen was moved up to Charlotte and a couple weeks ago Tyler Flowers received the same fate, though Allen has since been traded. That leaves currently only three of the original seven top prospects remaining on the team, but that isn’t to say the Barons aren’t still the most talented team in the Sox farm system.

Despite more notable departures from Brian Omogrosso and Lucas Harrell, the Barons have been able to reload through the high-A Winston-Salem Dash, who also won their first half division title. Along with Danks, Christian Marrero, Dan Hudson (who started in Kannapolis this season) and Charlie Shirek joined the Barons to replace the departed prospects.

Overall, that’s a lot of movement, but nothing extraordinary. So who cares? We often ignore wins and losses at FutureSox. Let’s change that for now. The Barons were 48-21 in the first half and have gone 18-11 in the second half. They have cooled down, clearly missing some of the sparks of the departed Barons, but are still just one game out of first place in their division in the second half.

Looking at where they have lost their production, it’s mostly in the lineup. Hudson, Shirek and Justin Cassel (demoted from Charlotte in a swap with Harrell) have more than matched the production of Poreda, Omogrosso and Harrell. Hudson and Shirek have both been able to put themselves on the long-term radar of the big league club and should get a look next spring. Whether or not they will be competing for a spot on the team is another story. First they need to survive the last week before the trade deadline and the offseason without getting traded, not a lock with Ken Williams as GM.

Getting back to the Barons, they haven’t been able to replace the production of Beckham, Flowers and Allen. Receiving David Cook from Charlotte after a short promotion will help bolster the middle of the lineup, but it’s tough to replace a good hitting shortstop and catcher. The Barons will need Dayan Viciedo to continue to improve (or start improving again?) and John Shelby to get it going if they are going to succeed in the Southern League playoffs. Of course, the team may have another new look by then.

Anthony Mazzuca: Name 1 sleeper in the Sox’s system that isn’t a top 5/10 prospect.
Kevin Goldstein: Just talked to a scout today who saw Dexter Carter over the weekend and really liked what he saw — big, very athletic, low 90s with a very good breaking ball, and I still like John Shelby.
AM: Seems like Shelby has sort of taken a step back after a nice 2008…
KG: Yeah, Double-A has proven to be a bit much, but he can still play all three outfields, has a good approach, a bit of speed and pop. I wish he was LH, he’d have a surefire future as a 4th OF.
AM: Did you expect more out of Jon Gilmore (.600 OPS at Kanny) this season?
KG: I did, but I really don’t anymore. That Kannapolis lineup is really ugly, not much to talk about there.

AM: Let’s jump to the draft, then come back to some individuals. How did you rank the Sox’s draft? Best pick and the worst pick?
KG: I didn’t do a ranking of the drafts specifically, but in general, I was a big fan of their selections, especially Mitchell and Thompson. I thought they took Phegley too high, but if they believe he really can catch, it’s understandable. I think what you saw was the continuing shift to tools and upside, a philosophy that Sox officials confirmed to me before the draft.
AM: How far away is Jared Mitchell? For a polished college player, there seems to be talk of a rather large learning curve.
KG: He’s a raw, toolsy college player with a ton of upside, but it will require patience. He’s certainly not going to move like Beckham, for example.
AM: Incredibly early, but what is the most realistic ETA you could put on it, if everything went right?
KG: Late ‘11? Something around there. He’s a tools guy, and those guys sometimes just click, and when the explode, they move very, very quickly, or it just never happens.There are certainly aspects of his game that need to improve.
AM: Anything in particular?
KG: Well, there’s a lot of swing and miss in him. You’re never going to turn him into Ichiro, but they do need to be curbed, and that’s going to come with a better plan, and better pitch recognition.
AM: Staying with the overall system, What effect has Buddy Bell had?
KG: It’s really hard to give credit (or blame) to any one guy. Success and failure in scouting and player development is really an organizational thing, and you are literally talking about hundreds of people. That said, Bell is very well respected.
AM: It just seems like the organization, after the 2006 draft, which was a disaster, have really taken a new approach to things, as you touched on earlier.
KG: Yeah, and that’s system wide. There’s been changes in personnel and philosophy, and both have been good things.
AM: Staying with the system as a whole, If you were doing a mid-season rank of where the minor league systems are, where would the Sox rank? Just for an idea of where they are, give me a number with and w/o Beckham and Poreda, two guys up with the team right now.
KG: Well, I had them 24th entering the year. Clearly, they’re up from there. If you include Beckham, Poreda, they’re definitely in the upper half, a top 15 system, but without them, and now with Allen gone, they more somewhere in the middle, but that’s for all of the right reasons.

AM: What is your view on the Brandon Allen trade? Too much for Pena, or have Sox fans maybe overrated what Allen really is?
KG: It’s funny, when the trade happened, I went through my notes and found three different scouts who had seen him this year. One thought he was an above-average every day big league first baseman. One thought he was more of a second division player. One thought he was a platoon player at best. So the reviews were really varied.
AM: Could it be a move to open up a spot for Viciedo at 1B?
KG: It was a move to get a dependable power righty in the pen, I don’t think they thought much about how it effected other prospects, and Viciedo at first would be pretty troubling, as he’s not even hitting enough for a third baseman right now.
AM: Any views on Pena himself?
KG: I do wonder if he’s really the answer. On a pure scouting level, he’s always shined, but the results have always been inconsistent. I saw it as only a minor upgrade, but you take what you can get.
AM: I just brought him up, so will stick with him. What kind of future in baseball do you project for Dayan Viciedo?
KG: Honestly, reviews have been very disappointing. Still a bit out of shape, swing at anything approach, not much power. Because of his age and where he’s coming from, you have to give him more time than others to make adjustments. If anything, I think it’s possible that they just started him at too high a level.
AM: Has there been any talk of the culture change playing a role, or just totally overmatched at the plate?
KG: Specifically on Viciedo, I haven’t heard that, but with the Cubans, it really is a different kind of culture shock than you get with most international players, and it really does need to be taken into account. It’s a massive, massive change in everything about Viciedo’s world. But as far as pure baseball goes, the approach is the biggest thing — he’s chasing everything.

AM: Overall, should White Sox fans be generally excited for what is in store for the future, or should we temper our excitement? With the way the farm system has produced in the last 5 years, this looks to be the best crop of prospects the Sox have had in quite some time…
KG: Sure, but it was kind of nowhere to go but up, no?
AM: Very true. I feel like there are a good amount of Sox fans maybe overrating the system because they aren’t used to having some high end prospects in the system.
KG: Look, I think they should be excited for Beckham alone — how often to teams develop true stars? It’s really pretty rare, but yes, I’d be much happier than I was. It’s not an elite system, but there’s some good stuff here.
AM: Tyler Flowers. Should he be close to untouchable? Is he going to stay behind the plate?
KG: You know, I’ve never been a fan of the term untouchable. Is anyone REALLY untouchable? If the Jays wanted him in Halladay deal, wouldn’t you want the Sox to do that?
AM: That’s why I wont say totally untouchable. If Pujols was offered for Beckham, he isn’t untouchable anymore.
KG: I think the catching future is still debatable, he’s just so huge a sluggish back there. That said, there has been some progress — they’ve shortened his release a bit, and the results are encouraging.
AM: Would his bat alone still project him to be a plus major league hitter?(if he had to move out of catcher)
KG: Yes, the bat is going to play.

AM: Whats your take overall on the Halladay news over the last 48 hours?
KG: Well, it makes sense for the Jays certainly, with this year AND 2010 under contract, his value is about as high as it can be, and he’s going to leave Toronto, so I do think there’s a good chance he’ll get moved.
AM: Will the Sox be in it, even with Williams comments yesterday about lacking attendance?
KG: I would saw they’re in the race, but not a favorite.
AM: What type of package would it have to be?
KG: It would be a ton. I think they’d ask for Beckham for sure, but if that was off the table, they would probably need at least two, maybe three of Poreda/Flowers/Danks.
AM: If you are the Sox, do you pull the trigger on a deal with those 3?
KG: Would I? Probably.
AM: Take on Jordan Danks?
KG: What’s not to like? Big, athletic, good approach, gap power, good runner, plays a nice CF. I don’t think he’ll ever be a true power guy, but I think he’ll be a solid every day center fielder, which is pretty good for an organization that has been absolutely desperate for one for a long time now.
AM: Top of the order guy?
KG: Yeah, could be an ideal No. 2 hitter type.

AM: Changing the topic a bit, How do professional organizations view your publication? What feedback have you received?
KG: They all read us, and like anything else, some like us, some don’t. We’re certainly a highly respected name in the industry, I think our work speaks for itself, and teams take my calls, so there’s that. I talk to tons of scouts on an anonymous level (pretty much every day) about what they’re seeing and what they think.
AM: What is your relationship with the Sox in general?
KG: Solid. I talk to White Sox scouts and front office people on a regular basis.
AM: That actually should just about do it from my end. Can’t thank you enough for taking out the time.
KG: More than happy to help.

We again would like to thank Kevin Goldstein for providing us with some great information on the entire White Sox organization.

The long awaited and long overdue promotion of David Cook to Charlotte has occurred. Unfortunately for Barons fans, this comes at the worst time as Cook was to participate in the Southern League All Star home run derby this Sunday at Rickwood Field. He was also scheduled to start in the All Star game itself.

The most intriguing move was the promotion of catcher Adam Ricks to Birmingham from Winston-Salem. Three catchers in Birmingham…hmmm, I wonder. With outfielder Christian Marrero and utility man Javier Colina manning first base after Brandon Allen’s promotion to AAA, does this mean we see Tyler Flowers move there? Or will he DH more now?

Also moving was utility man Luis Sierra, who was demoted to Kannapolis from Winston-Salem after Intimidators’ first basemen Jorge Castillo was placed on the DL. This leaves two open roster spots in Winston-Salem and one open in Kannapolis. White Sox first-round draft pick Jared Mitchell is expected to take that spot in Kannapolis once he signs, which apparently is imminent. UPDATE: Winston-Salem utility man Kyle Shelton was activated from the DL, which leaves one open roster spot with the Dash. UPDATE 2: It’s possible that Ricks could return to Winston-Salem in a few days when Barons outfielder Lee Cruz is eligible to come of the DL.

Cheers,
JPN

This season Pena is 5-3 in 37 relief appearances with 1 save. He has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. The 27 year-old has a career 4.08 ERA in 222.2 innings. His best season came in 2007 when he had a 3.27 ERA in 85.1 innings. He is a durable reliever that should help take some pressure off of Dotel and Linebrink from the right side.

Allen was one of the top prospects in the White Sox organization. With Gordon Beckham and Aaron Poreda currently on the big league squad, Allen was certainly one of the top five prospects in the system (in a group with Tyler Flowers, Dayan Viciedo, Jordan Danks and Dan Hudson). The 23 year-old got promoted to AAA Charlotte a couple weeks ago and after getting off to a hot start really struggled. In 15 games with the Knights, Allen was hitting .262 (16-61) with a home run and 8 RBI. He drew no walks and struck out 13 times. He had a .639 OPS.

It is likely Jimmy Gobble will be sent down or released to make room for Pena considering the success lefty Poreda has had.

For more information on Brandon Allen, including a scouting report, check out his FutureSox Prospect Profile. FutureSox plans to release our Prospect Profiles in the next week. View Allen’s for a preview of what’s to come.

Charlotte first baseman Brandon Allen is hitting .171 in his last 10 games (7-41) with 2 doubles, 3 RBI and 10 K’s to no walks. To be fair, he’s only played 15 games in AAA (he’s hitting .246 for the Knights), but it is still a rough stretch for Big BA.

Cheers,
JPN

That still leaves eight players: unanimous picks, catcher Tyler Flowers and second baseman C.J. Retherford as well as third baseman Dayan Viciedo, outfielders Stefan Gartrell and David Cook and pitchers John Ely, Fernando Hernandez and Jhonny Nunez.

Flowers and Viciedo are scheduled to play in the Futures Game in St. Louis the day before, but according to Barons GM Jonathan Nelson, Flowers said he wanted to be in Birmingham for the game even if he can’t play. Flowers told the MLB travel agent that he wanted to get back ASAP so that he can at least be a part of the experience. No word on Viciedo’s plans.

The game will take place at Regions Park in Birmingham on July 13th with Barons manager Ever Magallanes heading up the South squad. A home run derby will take place the day before at historic Rickwood Field. It’s safe to say that Flowers will not participate in the derby much to my chagrin. I guess that leaves it up to David Cook to launch some surface to air bombs.

Cheers,
JPN