Favorite Pick

SC: Ryan Buch
I think the Sox got great value with Buch in the 8th round. He’s got the potential to become a mid-rotation starter due to his solid three pitch mix of a low to mid 90’s fastball, excellent curve and improving change. The command of his fastball can be erratic which is what could prevent him from reaching his potential but he’s definitely the prime candidate to be next year’s Dexter Carter or Dan Hudson. I think Buch had value even in the second round so to draft him in the 8th and sign him for slot money looks like a great job by the Sox. Lot’s of projectability here.

DS: Kyle Bellamy
In terms of best value at the round the player was taken, I really like Bellamy. He dominated at Miami in the tough ACC for 2 years and has the stuff and deception with his sidearm delivery to fly through the minors (he is already doing very well in Kannapolis). His high 80s fastball has good sink and his slider is effective. His strikeout to walk ratio is spectacular so far, which is somewhat expected because he was a very advanced reliever out of college. It might be generous to say his upside is as a setup man, but chances are good he will be the first member of this White Sox draft class to make it to the Majors.

Least Favorite Pick

SC: Justin Collop
There are definitely things to like about Collop; he’s athletic, has a fast arm and three workable pitches when he’s on but he’s been very inconsistent, his command isn’t good and his secondary pitches fell off during the second half of the season resulting in Collop getting hit hard. There’s too much uncertainty and not enough upside in Collop for me to call this pick anything other than a reach. I think Collop is the type of prospect that you take a flier on in the 10-14 round range, not the 6th.

DS: Matt Hopps
I’ll put Hopps in the never to interview with us category. He signed for well under slot and has only been pitching for a few years so there is projectability for his age (23), but I think the odds are against him more than the rest of the top 10 picks. The term least favorite fits best because I don’t dislike the pick, it was the 9th round after all, but I feel that there is the least to like about Hopps relative to other somewhat high picks.

Biggest Sleeper

SC: Dan Black
The 14th rounder Black hasn’t had the best of results in the early going, but I really like his combination of plus power and fantastic plate discipline. He doesn’t have a position and has been playing a lot of first base, it’s unfortunate that he couldn’t stick at the position he played a lot in college, that being catcher, because then he really would be a prospect. But as it is I believe in the bat, even at first, so hopefully Dan Black doesn’t prove me wrong.

DS: Kyle Colligan
Colligan is an athletic outfielder, something the Sox seemed to grab a lot of this draft, and has done well at Great Falls this year. He did well in the Big 12 at Texas A&M and can play a solid centerfield while hitting for some pop. He’s been getting on base at a great clip with the Voyagers this season, living up to my own expectations of him. He is an advanced hitter that shouldn’t have too much trouble with A ball pitching in 2010. I’m not expecting him to set the world on fire, but he should do well. For a 12th rounder, I think he has the ability to be an under the radar prospect that does well without much notice.

Most Likely to Bust

SC: Trayce Thompson
Thompson was probably my second favourite pick of the whole draft behind Buch, but there is a huge amount of bust potential with Trayce. He’s very raw and has a long swing leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are two big red flags for a prospect, but there is also an awful lot to like about Trayce. If he puts it all together Thompson could become a prototypical right fielder with great power, arm strength and solid defense, however it will almost certainly take him a long time to get there.

DS: Trayce Thompson
He is the highest high schooler the Sox selected and he is widely considered a raw prospect. I love the pick and the upside, but by definition a raw player is more likely to bust than most. He’s a ways away from the Majors if he gets there so fans will need to be patient with his development. It will be interesting to see if Thompson starts next year in Kannapolis or if the Sox are going to take it slowly with him and have him in extended spring training before rookie ball.

First to the Majors

SC: Kyle Bellamy
Bellamy was a dominant reliever for the Hurricanes. He’s very polished and gets lots of ground balls with a good amount of strikeouts from his two-seam fastball and sweeping slider, both of which he has great command of. He was described by one prospect evaluator as “Death on right handers” and ultimately may have to settle for a job as a ROOGY, although he could potentially become a late inning reliever, possibly even a closer. Unlike last years supposed fast riser Drew O’Neil, Bellamy made light work of rookie ball and I don’t think an assignment to Birmingham for the start of next year would be too aggressive, although Winston-Salem is his more likely destination.

DS: Kyle Bellamy
My reasoning for this is mostly why I said he was my favorite pick. He was a first-team All-American in college and has the stuff to dominate A ball hitters. Great sink on his pitches leads to a great groundball rate and he has been striking guys out so far in the minors. Sidearm guys seem to move quickly in general and I don’t think Bellamy will be an exception to that.

The One That Got Away

SC: Bryan Morgado
There were better prospects that the Sox failed to sign but Morgado would have filled the biggest need, that need being left-handed pitching prospects which aren’t still 4 years away. Morgado struggled a lot with his command while at Tennessee which stopped him pitching up to his stuff (he has a first round arm). The White Sox don’t exactly have the best reputation for developing prospects but they’ve done well just recently and it would have been interesting to see what they could have done with Morgado.

DS: Justin Jones
Morgado is the easier pick here because he was drafted in the 3rd round, but I really started to like Jones based on the things I was reading about him after the draft. Word was his velocity was improving and he supposedly had a very good curveball. He seemed like a high upside pick for the 7th round, but he probably realized that too and decided college would improve his draft stock 3 years from now. It’s hard to argue with that and the White Sox have been known to redraft players (Chris Getz, Jordan Danks, Ricky Brooks) so maybe we will see the same with Jones down the road. It seems like the Sox weren’t going to go over slot on any of their draftees, which is acceptable as long as the talent they did sign makes up for it.

Overall Thoughts

SC: I liked a lot of picks that were made but I wonder if there’s enough impact talent here because outside of Jared Mitchell, Thompson, Josh Phegley and Buch I don’t see anyone who could become a significantly above average starter. The Sox really could have done with signing one or more of the Justin Jones, Bryan Morgado and Dane Williams trio after dealing a lot of their pitching depth in the Peavy trade, but unfortunately they were not able to, so they will have to wait for either off-season trades or next year’s draft to plug this hole in the system. I do like the direction that the organisation seems to be taking with their draft mentality, moving away from the “safer” picks such as Broadway and McCulloch a few years ago and moving towards higher risk, higher reward picks such as Mitchell and Thompson.

DS: The Sox clearly went after athletes in this draft. Mitchell, Thompson, Colligan and Nick Ciolli all played center field with their teams this year. The Sox could use some infield depth in the minors now, but it’s good to see outfield athleticism as a priority. I like David Holmberg and Matt Heidenreich as projectable arms, but there weren’t any good polished starting pitchers signed by the Sox. Morgado would have been helped that, but I’m worried about his control. It’s way too early to say much of anything about this draft in terms of quality yet, but on paper it’s easier to like the hitters (even in the lower rounds) more than the pitching. Though it will be interesting to see how the top high school picks develop.

The above-slot signings from around the league have been flowing in at a rapid rate the last couple days and that will continue, but there has been little news on the White Sox front. Four notable picks remain unsigned and third rounder Bryan Morgado is the only one from college. Justin Jones (7th round), Dane Williams (15th) and Brian Goodwin (17th) are three talented high school prospects with strong college commitments.

Morgado has some unique circumstances surrounding him. He pitched for Tennessee last season, but wasn’t going to return to the Vols whether he signed or not. He improved his stock and leverage by pitching well at the Cape Cod League (32.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 47 K, 15 BB). Obviously the control will have to improve, but this helps put to rest some of the concerns about his struggles in the spring. Adding another twist is that Tennessee now is trying to get the lefty to come back to school for what would be his junior season. The Sox will have to go over slot for Morgado and have supposedly offered such, but it looks like a coin flip right now.

Jones, another left-handed pitcher, appears set to honor his commitment to Cal. It’s not completely over, but the Sox seem very unlikely to sign the northern California product. Williams is likely to honor his North Carolina State commitment as well. The right-handed pitcher was always expected to do so unless the Sox wowed him with an offer and it appears they have not done so. Goodwin has long said he wanted to go to North Carolina and it is nothing new to say the centerfielder will not be turning pro.

As it stands, Morgado is the only of the four that the Sox have a good chance of signing. The White Sox lost two young lefties in the Jake Peavy trade so it would be nice to replenish the spot in the minor league system. We don’t know enough about the negotiations with Morgado to make a good judgment, but it sounds positive enough that the Sox could strike a deal. However, it would be a stunner to see any of the high schoolers sign, which is slightly disappointing because Jones had some positive write-ups on him following his senior year.

The minor surprise is that he signed for just under $30,000 over slot. The numbers floating around were a little bit higher. Thompson is the first high draft pick of the White Sox to sign for over slot this year.

It is expected that Thompson will report to Bristol to begin his professional career. Expectations should be reserved for his opening stint because he was regarded as a very raw player taken on the basis of his impressive upside and potential.

With Thompson’s signing, the highest remaining unsigned pick is 3rd rounder Bryan Morgado. Morgado has been doing well in the Cape Cod League this summer. In 27 innings, he has 39 strikeouts to 12 walks with a 1.67 ERA. This kind of production will likely require an above slot bonus for Morgado as well. The estimated slot for Morgado’s 102nd spot is just under $320,000. 7th rounder Justin Jones, a high school pitcher, also remains unsigned.

The reason for this was summed up perfectly by Jim Callis of Baseball America (see below) and each of the players listed above fit into the category describe by Callis (as they are all believed to be asking for “above slot”).

It has been 12 days since a first-round draft pick signed, and 20 of the 32 have yet to agree to terms. Don’t expect those numbers to change much in the next two to three weeks. Most if not all of the first-rounders who were going to sign for MLB’s slot recommendations have done so, and MLB is going to drag its heels on approving deals that far exceed its guidelines.

This means that the Sox might have actually reached deals with the prospects in question but those deals have not been announced as the league tends to sit on above-slot offers. Or the Sox might just be waiting patiently to see if the asking price drops before making their significant offer.

What we can tell you from what we’ve heard:
- The Sox appear confident that they’ll be able to sign Trayce Thompson and Justin Jones.

- Bryan Morgado appears to be a wild-card. Initially the Sox had felt he’d be an easy sign as he was a college player without a college (Tennessee wasn’t going to keep him) but as a draft eligible sophomore who has opened up some scouts’ eyes at the Cape, his contract demands and leverage have been higher than expected.

- Brian Goodwin and Dane Williams will go down to the wire. The odds aren’t good, but the Sox are going to give it a fighting shot.

Morgado struck out 75 in 52.1 innings this year in 5 starts and 15 relief appearances for the Vols. However, he walked 36 and had a 6.36 ERA. He was a redshirt sophomore this past season due to having Tommy John surgery October of 2006. The injury was suffered the summer after his senior year of high school.

Morgado was the Miami Herald Pitcher of the year in as a junior in 2005 after striking out 117 in 67.1 innings. Last season he was named second team Pro-Line Athletic/National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association Freshman All-America after pitching well as the Saturday starter (the #2 of the staff) for UT. He went 5-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 80.1 innings. He struck out 104 and walked 37.

His fastball tops out at 94-95, but sits a bit lower than that. His curve is also rated pretty well, but he needs to develop a change and improve his control if he wants to remain a starting pitcher. The two pitch combination could make him a solid relief prospect, that is if he can avoid further injury problems.

Morgado was selected in the 26th round by Boston out of high school. Considering he was just a sophomore last year and didn’t have his best season, he might also be a tough sign. However, it would be hard to see him going higher than the 3rd round with mediocre performance and a Tommy John surgery already behind him.

1 (23) – Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU – SIGNED (Kannapolis)

1A (38) – Josh Phegley, C, Indiana – SIGNED (Kannapolis)

2 (61) – Trayce Thompson, CF, Santa Margarita Catholic HS, CA – SIGNED (Bristol)

2 (71) – David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS, FL – SIGNED (Bristol)

3 (102) – Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee

4 (133) – Matthew Heidenreich, RHP, Temescal Canyon HS, CA – SIGNED (Bristol)

5 (163) – Kyle Bellamy, RHP, U Miami – SIGNED (Bristol)

6 (193) – Justin Collop, RHP, Toledo – SIGNED (Great Falls)

7 (223) – Justin Jones, LHP, Oakdale Senior HS, CA

8 (253) – Ryan Buch, RHP, Monmouth – SIGNED (Great Falls)

9 (283) – Matthew Hopps, RHP, Cal St Dominguez Hills – SIGNED (Great Falls)

10 (313) – Nick Ciolli, OF, Indiana St. – SIGNED (Great Falls)

11 (343) – Jimmy Ballinger, RHP, Southern Miss – SIGNED (Bristol)

12 (373) – Kyle Colligan, CF, Texas A&M – SIGNED (Great Falls)

13 (403) – Cameron Bayne, RHP, Concordia U – SIGNED (Great Falls)

14 (433) – Daniel Black, 1B, Purdue – SIGNED (Bristol)

15 (463) – Dane Williams, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL

16 (493) – Daniel Wagner, 2B, Belmont – SIGNED (Bristol)

17 (523) – Brian Goodwin, CF, Rocky Mount HS, NC

18 (553) – Philip Negus, RHP, Wake Forest – SIGNED (Bristol)

19 (583) – Brady Shoemaker, LF, Indiana St. – SIGNED (Bristol)

20 (613) – Nathan Reed, LHP, Pittsburgh

21 (643) – Jared McDonald, SS, Arizona St. – SIGNED (Bristol)

22 (673) – Zach Kayne, SS, Davidson – SIGNED (Great Falls)

23 (703) – Goldy Simmons, RHP, San Diego State – SIGNED (Bristol)

24 (733) – Jeffrey Tezak, 2B, Nebraska – SIGNED (Great Falls)

25 (763) – Mike Strong, LHP, Iowa Western CC

26 (793) – Matthew Harughty, 2B, Oklahoma – SIGNED (Great Falls)

27 (823) – Kyle Davis, 2B, Delaware – SIGNED (Bristol)

28 (853) – Robert Cummings, 3B, UC Santa Barbara – SIGNED (Great Falls)

29 (883) – Charles Delk, RHP, Clemson – SIGNED (Bristol)

30 (913) – Robert Vaughn, C, Kansas St. – SIGNED (Bristol)

31 (943) – Michael Hamme, CF, Campbell U. – SIGNED (Great Falls)

32 (973) – Jacob Wilson, RHP, New Mexico St. – SIGNED (Great Falls)

33 (1003) – Chase Cooney, RHP, Volunteer State CC – SIGNED (Bristol)

34 (1033) – Alex Farotto, LHP, South Carolina – SIGNED (Bristol)

35 (1063) – Danny Wiltz, RHP, Tennessee – SIGNED (Bristol)

36 (1093) – Ryan Crowley, LHP, Morton West HS, IL

37 (1123) – Joseph Serafin, LHP, Vermont – SIGNED (Bristol)

38 (1153) – Anthony Casario, OF, Maryland – SIGNED (Bristol)

39 (1183) – Paul Burnside, RHP, Auburn – SIGNED (Great Falls)

40 (1213) – Leighton Pangilinan, 1B, Escalon HS, CA – SIGNED (Bristol)

41 (1243) – Ryan Lee, CF, Cal Poly – San Luis Obispo – SIGNED (Bristol)

42 (1273) – Christopher Zagyi, RHP, Middlesex County College – SIGNED (Bristol)

43 (1303) – Tyler Williams, 3B, Chaparral HS, AZ

44 (1333) – Taylor Thompson, RHP, Auburn – SIGNED (Bristol)

45 (1363) – Harold Baines Jr., LF, McDaniel College – SIGNED (Bristol)

46 (1393) – Grant Monroe, RHP, Northwest Florida State CC

47 (1423) – Jordan Yallen, OF, Golden Valley HS, CA

48 (1453) – Matthew Little, LHP, Bryan HS, TX

49 (1483) – Theron Geith, LHP, Scottsdale CC

50 (1513) – Kevin Chapman, LHP, Florida