Note: catchers not included

1. Jared Mitchell, OF

-5 runs for Jared Mitchell in a small sample size (34 games) doesn’t sound great, but you have to remember that he didn’t play centre field in college and so the adjustment may take some time. The scouting reports are very positive as Mitchell’s speed allows him to cover a lot of ground and get to balls that other centre fielders could only dream of reaching. Kannapolis manager Ernie Young was quoted as saying “He takes control in center field like he’s been playing professionally for a while.”

2. Dayan Viciedo, 3B/1B

Much has been made of Dayan Viciedo’s poor defensive ability, but as you can see, TotalZone likes him and had him pegged as a +4 run fielder over 130 games. It is expected that Viciedo will make the transition to first base this year, likely starting at Charlotte, and he certainly made his fair share of errors last year, but TZ indicates he may have had a future at 3B. The scouts disagree citing his lack of range and concentration as his main flaws.

3. Jordan Danks, OF

Jordan Danks’ defensive performances have been something of a mixed bag going by TotalZone. For the year he was a -2 run defender in centre field and a -1 run defender in left field. Last year he was a +2 run defender in CF, which would make him a fairly neutral defender (+0 runs) career in CF (107 games). The scouting reports are more positive however with Baseball America saying “he the range and instincts to play center field.” He may never be the gold glover that some people seem to expect, but he should prove a very capable defensive outfielder.

4. Brent Morel, 3B

Brent Morel is a case of stats and scouting coming together perfectly to form the same conclusion on a player. Morel’s TotalZone at 3B this year was an impressive +9 runs (128 games). The scouting reports indicate that Morel has good agility and quickness at the position with a plus arm. I’m still not convinced that Morel has the power that you would typically want from your third baseman but his defensive ability should make up for any shortcoming that he may have with the bat.

5. Trayce Thompson, OF

As with Jared Mitchell, there isn’t anywhere near enough data to draw any real conclusions on Trayce Thompson’s defensive ability but to stop people from asking about him, I decided to just include him. Thompson’s TotalZone in 31 games playing centre was +2 (+9.7 per 150). The scouting reports state that Thompson has the range to play centre with the arm to play right. As he fills out I’d expect Trayce to make the gradual shift to RF, but for now he should be a very adequate CF.

6. C.J. Retherford, 2B

Retherford moved from third base to second base last year and he held his own considering it was a new position to him, however, the -2 TZ that Retherford posted at 2B was a lot worse than what he managed at 3B over the previous two years, where he ranked as a +13 run defender. I don’t mind the shift in position though as I see him as a future utility man meaning that defensive flexibility is a must for him, there is even talk that he will see time at catcher during spring training. The scouting reports indicate that Retherford is an average defensive 2B, who doesn’t have the range to play SS, which sounds pretty accurate to me.

7. John Shelby, OF

John Shelby fell out of favour with most message boarders this past year due to his lack of offense, but his defense in the outfield has gotten progressively better since he made the transition in ’07 according to TotalZone. In ’07 Shelby was a -10 run defender, in ’08 a +4 run defender and in ’09 a +15 run defender. The scouting reports aren’t quite as complimentary, however, as they indicate that Shelby is more of a league average defender.

8. Christian Marrero, 1B/OF

Christian, the lesser-hyped Marrero brother, has steadily produced since being drafted in 2005 and is starting to force himself onto the prospect radar. Marrero hasn’t yet found a defensive home as he has split his time between RF, LF and 1B, but if this year is anything to go by, the outfield looks like his better position. In 84 games playing the outfield his TotalZone was an impressive +10 runs as compared to his -7 runs playing 36 games at 1B. There don’t seem to be many scouting reports floating around on Marrero’s defensive ability, but I have heard that he has the arm to play RF and Buddy Bell reportedly likes him a lot.

9. Stefan Gartrell, OF

Prior to this year Gartrell’s TotalZone numbers were pretty good, with him coming in at +17 runs between 06 and 08. This year, however, his TotalZone was a terrible -15 runs in right field (107 games). This poor performance last year is likely due to random fluctuation caused by a small sample size and deferring to his career average should give us a better idea of his defensive ability. The scouting reports paint him as an average defender at best.

10. Eduardo Escobar, SS

Eduardo Escobar has drawn rave reviews for his defensive ability from scouts and it’s just as well because he doesn’t project to be much more than a contact hitter with the bat. Scouts cite Escobar’s good range, excellent hands and a solid arm as his main strengths. TotalZone agrees with the scouts as Escobar scores well by this metric. Last year he was a +7 run defender at short and for his career he is +17 runs above average at SS (194 games). Escobar has drawn comparisons to both Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Guillen. While I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near as good defensively as Vizquel, he is that type of player (all glove, no bat).

We’ve gathered six White Sox top 10s from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fan Graphs, John Sickels’ Minor League Ball, Diamond Futures and our own postseason rankings. Fan Graphs does things a little differently, they don’t include 2009 rookies in their rankings due to a lack of sample size, so you have to take that into account.

For starters, Baseball America gave us a minor surprise by making Jared Mitchell number 1. Phil Rogers, who has a big hand in the White Sox rankings, said he thinks Dan Hudson will be as good as Jered Weaver. Hudson was only third, the lowest of any of the lists, so that really shows how much they love Mitchell at BA. When Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus talked with us, he gushed about Mitchell so it’s no surprise they also had him up there at two. A few of our voters tend to be conservative with players in the lower levels of the system so Mitchell coming in lowest here isn’t a major shock. A solid start to his 2010 will certainly have him in the top three of our 2010 midseason rankings (not to mention the possible graduations of Hudson and Tyler Flowers).

As for Hudson and Flowers, there’s a near consensus to have them in the top three as there should be. We picked Flowers over Hudson (barely) and my personal rationale for that pick was because of the positional value of a catcher. Half of the rankings had Hudson higher, half had Flowers higher and I don’t think you can go wrong either way.

Brent Morel is interesting to me because he was seventh on our list and I felt that was too high. None of our voters had Morel in the top five, yet four of these publications had Morel fourth. Us and Diamond Futures are the only to have Dayan Viciedo above Morel and Diamond Futures makes the best pro-Viciedo argument you will find:

Viciedo played the entire season as a 20yo in AA, and posted, park-adjusted, League average numbers across the board. That was good enough to finish #13 in the League among hitters in our 2009 Performance rankings—despite it being his U.S. debut. But that only tells part of the story, as Viciedo posted a park-neutral OPS of .853 after mid-July. For a frame of reference, that was the same as Josh Bell’s SOL numbers in what was considered a breakout season, and Josh Bell is two and one-half years older…What we are saying is that we expect him to perform similar in 2010 to the second-half of 2009, and when you give him that half-year adjustment, his numbers put him in the Top 100 prospect range—which is a heckuva a lot better than his detractors would like you to believe.

Simply put, Viciedo has more upside than Morel and the lofty expectations compared to his results and reality may have too many people unfairly down on him.

Santos Rodriguez and David Holmberg appeared on multiple top tens and didn’t even crack our top 25. Granted, Holmberg was #26 and appeared on everyone’s ballot except one, but that is a drastic difference in opinion. Again, our voters tend to stay conservative on rookies, but another factor is that Holmberg throws below 90 giving him two factors going against him. He has a strong curve and changeup, but he is going to have to add some velocity on his fastball to be a top 10 prospect in my mind.

It’s good to have different perspectives, especially when a few of these publications have different ways of evaluating prospects. All together there were 17 different prospects in these top ten lists. If nothing else that should show that beyond the top tier or two it’s all about what type of player you prefer. Tell us which rankings you like best in the comments!

As for the changes, the most notable is Brent Morel replacing the injured Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo had right elbow inflammation, which is really disappointing because the AFL was a great opportunity for Viciedo to show he is the elite prospect the Sox paid for. Morel has been unspectacular so far in the Cuban’s place. Morel is hitting .280 (7-25), but has no extra base hits and only one walk.

The other addition, reliever Kyle Bellamy, is further proof that Bellamy is the favorite to be the first from the 2009 draft class to make it to the Majors. He’s only pitched two innings, but the former Miami Hurricane has yet to allow a run.

As for the original Javelinas, Jordan Danks is leading the way. He was named to the AFL’s all-star type Rising Stars game that takes place Saturday. Hitting .333 (22-66) he is fourth in the league in OBP at .450, second in runs with 20 and tied for fourth in walks with 13. Most importantly for Danks, he’s only struck out 14 times in 79 plate appearances. Strike out rate has been a noteworthy concern regarding Danks, but so far so good in the AFL.

Meanwhile, C.J. Retherford has been slumping. He is 1 for his last 18 and his average for the fall is down to .255. Early on he was creating a lot of buzz as a competitor for the second base job, or least the backup at some point next season, but the Chris Getz and Josh Fields for Mark Teahen trade complicates things. Gordon Beckham is supposedly moving to second base, locking down that position, but Retherford still may get a shot to battle Jayson Nix for reserve infielder.

The rest of the pitchers aren’t the flashy prospects among the White Sox representatives, but Matt Long has been the best of the group (10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 7 K, 1 BB). Sergio Santos (9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB) has at least shown the strikeout rate you hope for from a pitcher with plus velocity. Justin Cassel (14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA) and Jacob Rasner (2.1 IP, 27 ERA) have struggled and are fading away into non-prospect territory.

Note: stats are through games of November 5.

The Peoria Javelinas, the club where the White Sox prospects are playing, is 5-3 with a league leading .332 batting average. Yes, .332 as a team. The AFL is certainly a hitters’ league and the White Sox hitters have contributed to that. Let’s start by taking a look at how the Sox hitters are doing through the Javelinas’ first 8 games.

C.J. Retherford: 6-15 (.400), 2 3B, 5 RBI, 2 R, BB, K, .438 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.104 OPS

Jordan Danks: 8-22 (.364), 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1/1 SBA, .462 OBP, .727 SLG, 1.189 OPS

Dayan Viciedo: 6-18 (.333), 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, BB, 6 K

The three hitters the Sox sent to the Phoenix area are clearly the team’s best AFL prospects. All three are off to a hot start in the heat of Arizona. It’s nice to see Danks hit for power, even if it’s in Arizona. The same goes for Viciedo, but striking out in almost 1/3 of his plate appearances is a concern. Danks and Viciedo have a strong case to be the two most intriguing White Sox hitting prospects in 2010 because both are coming off disappointing seasons and are well regarded talents. As for Retherford, he continues to hit at every level. He could be a third contender for playing time at second base next year with a good spring and a hot start in AAA.

Meanwhile, the pitchers haven’t been as successful, which isn’t much of a surprise.

Justin Cassel: 5.2 IP, 9.53 ERA, 8 R (6 ER), 6 K, 2 BB, 11 H in 2 starts

Sergio Santos: 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3 R, 5 K, BB, 7 H (2 HR) in 3 games

Matt Long: 5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 8 H in 3 games

Jacob Rasner: 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5 R, 0 K, BB, 6 H in 2 games

The Sox sent a bunch of fringe prospects to Arizona, but Santos is a more interesting case. The converted infielder has big time heat on his fastball, but needs to refine his stuff. If he improves he could become a high upside reliever. As for the others, Cassel and Rasner are running out of chances. An awful 2009 from Cassel bumped his prospect status and Rasner has been mediocre throughout his career. Long, a 2nd rounder in 2006, had a strong campaign for the Barons, pitching out of the bullpen for the first time since 2006. However, his fastball is only in the high 80s and the rest of his stuff hasn’t been as good as expected so it’s hard to see him as a top prospect.

Let’s not put too much stock into barely more than a week in a fall league, but the Arizona Fall League is a true hidden gem of baseball and is worth following if you are going through early offseason anxiety. For daily updates on the AFL follow us on our Twitter and check out the AFL home page.

The previous rank is in reference to our Midseason Top 25. Player profiles are linked in the player’s name if the player has one. Tell us what you love and hate about the rankings in the comments section or join the discussion at Soxtalk!

1. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
Previous: 1st

2. Dan Hudson, RH SP, White Sox
Previous: 4th

3. Dayan Viciedo, 3B, AA Birmingham
Previous: 2nd

4. Jordan Danks, CF, AA Birmingham
Previous: 3rd

5. C.J. Retherford, 2B/3B, AA Birmingham
Previous: 11th

6. Jared Mitchell, OF, Low-A Kannapolis
Previous: 5th

7. Brent Morel, 3B, High-A Winston-Salem
Previous: 17th

8. Charlie Shirek, RH SP, AA Birmingham
Previous: 10th

9. Trayce Thompson, OF, Rookie Great Falls
Previous: Not yet signed (He would have been 13th if he had)

10. Josh Phegley, C, Low-A Kannapolis
Previous: 8th

11. Carlos Torres, RH SP, White Sox
Previous: 14th

12. Jhonny Nunez, RH RP, White Sox
Previous: 25th

13. John Ely, RH SP, AA Birmingham
Previous: 19th

14. Christian Marrero, OF/1B, AA Birmingham
Previous: UR

15. John Shelby III, OF, AA Birmingham
Previous: 7th

16. Stefan Gartrell, OF, AAA Charlotte
Previous: 23rd

17. Nathan Jones, RH RP, High-A Winston-Salem
Previous: 12th

18. Charlie Leesman, LH SP, Low-A Kannapolis
Previous: 20th

19. Kyle Bellamy, RH RP, Low-A Kannapolis
Previous: UR

20. Lucas Harrell, RH SP, AAA Charlotte
Previous: 15th

21. Stephen Sauer, RH SP, Low-A Kannapolis
Previous: 23rd

22. Jon Link, RH RP, AAA Charlotte
Previous: 13th

23. Steven Upchurch, RH SP, Rookie Bristol
Previous: 16th

24. Brandon Hynick, RH SP, AAA Charlotte
Previous: Not yet in system

25. Clevelan Santeliz, RH RP, AA Birmingham
Previous: UR

Others receiving votes, in order of points/votes received: David Holmberg, Jon Gilmore, Miguel Gonzalez, Dan Remenowsky, Santos Rodriguez, Nevin Griffith, Eduardo Escobar, Brady Shoemaker, Nick Ciolli, Joe Serafin, Ryan Buch, Matt Heidenreich, Kyle Colligan, Gregory Infante, Jim Gallagher, Fernando Hernandez, Brandon Short, Seth Loman

Prospects previously ranked, still in the system from but received no votes this time: Brian Omogrosso (formerly #9, torn labrum), Justin Greene (#19)

Prospects previously ranked, no longer in the system: Dexter Carter (#7, traded to SD), Jack Egbert (#25, now with NYM)

What does the future hold for the current members of the Barons roster? As we all know, in minor league baseball there’s no telling where everybody will be the following year. I’ll go through the roster and see if I can show some clairvoyance.

Is Donny Lucy done? Myself as well as my astute wife, a self professed “people watcher,” think he has the body language that screams “I’m done.” It would be a shame though, he is tough as nails and is a great game caller. Although, it would be wise of the organization to keep the Stanford educated Lucy around in a coaching capacity. Jared Price could likely return as a Triple-A backup. His knowledge of the pitchers in the system would help with catching continuity, which is vital because you can’t just sign a catcher off the street mid-year. He’s only 27, and although he’s a feast or famine hitter, he is solid behind the plate and in the community visiting sick children in the hospital and doing loads of charity work.

I expect Jordan Danks, Christian Marrero, John Shelby III and Jim Gallagher to spend at least part of 2010 with the Barons. I’d say that only Gallagher will be here the whole year, although he could move up late. Danks, Shelby III and Marrero should hit their way to Charlotte by the middle of the season.

David Cook, Javier Colina, Robbie Hudson and Lee Cruz may likely be in other organizations in 2010. If Cook’s contract with the White Sox is up, then I’d imagine he’s had his fill with this organization. There may be better opportunities for him elsewhere. He will be missed in Birmingham, although I think there is an outside chance he’ll play in Charlotte. Cruz, Hudson and Colina could all play in Charlotte as well, but I think at least two of them will be gone. Colina is a 30 year old minor league journeyman. Hudson, 26, is versatile defensively and clutch with the bat, although a light hitter overall. And Cruz is 26 and hasn’t done all that well since being drafted in 2006, but he’s shown some flashes of big time power.

C.J. Retherford, Dayan Viciedo, John Ely and Clevelan Santeliz all are primed and ready for a full season at Charlotte in 2010. All of them had impressive years and would benefit from the challenge of Triple-A competition.

The rest of the pitching staff is a mixed bag. Justin Cassel peaked in 2008, Kyle McCulloch has not progressed at all after 2 full seasons with Birmingham. In fact, he hasn’t had an extended run of success since the summer of 2007, prior to his promotion to Birmingham. Johnnie Lowe’s initial tour of Double-A reminded me of McCulloch’s first starts with the Barons. Johnny Lujan can’t seem to harness his stuff to be successful and may end up being released. Other “meh” pitchers Matt Long, Matt Zaleski, Ricky Brooks, Henry Mabee and Jacob Marceaux could return, could move on or could be in Charlotte. Mabee’s the only one who could still turn out to be a prospect in my mind. Meanwhile, Charlie Shirek had a good season overall and will likely return for at least half the season to anchor the Barons rotation.

I’m guessing that the Barons 2010 opening day roster will include catchers Logan Johnson, John Curtis and Adam Ricks. Infielders Jim Gallagher, Greg Paiml, Dale Mollenhauer, Brent Morel, Seth Loman, Joe Persichina and C.J. Lang. Outfielders Christian Marrero, Jordan Danks, John Shelby III and Salvador Sanchez. Pitchers Charlie Shirek, Henry Mabee, Ricky Brooks, Miguel Socolovich, Hector Santiago, Jacob Rasner, Nathan Jones, Anthony Carter, Wander Perez, Levi Maxwell, Santo Luis, Kyle Bellamy and Dan Remenowsky. Of course, with trades, releases, Rule V drafts and free agents, things could change dramatically. If the White Sox do not retain Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik, I could see former Barons outfielder Stefan Gartrell getting a shot in spring training next year.

With the Barons season ending, I’ll be putting the weekly JPNese on hiatus until next spring. Although, if anyone has a specific request, I would be happy to write one from time to time. Somebody wake me up when spring training begins…it’s been real, guys.

Cheers,
JPN

The Birmingham Barons were one of Minor League Baseball’s best teams this year and their 92-47 record was the best in the team’s history. Their roster at the start of the season was stacked with many of the organizations top prospects including Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Allen, Dayan Viciedo, Aaron Poreda and John Shelby, and as you would have expected, they made light work of opposing Southern League teams. Promotions, trades and call-ups removed many of their best players from the first couple of months of the season but they were replaced, and replaced well, by players such as Christian Marrero, Jordan Danks and Charlie Shirek, added to that, mainstays such as John Ely and C.J. Retherford ensured that the Barons didn’t skip a beat in the second half. Now ready to make a run for the Southern League crown, the Barons will start their best of 5 series with Jacksonville Suns on Thursday.

The Winston-Salem Dash make their way into the playoff largely thanks to playing in a very weak Carolina League South. You may think that’s a little unfair, saying they’re only in the playoff due to playing in a weak division, but when you have a 4.30 ERA (2nd worst in the CAR) and are just midpack in runs scored, it’s unlikely that you were a good team. The Dash actually allowed more runs (642) than they scored (626). Winston-Salem’s offense has been led by a personal favourite of mine, Seth Loman, and postseason All-Star at 3B, Brent Morel, they also have Carolina League manager of the year Joe McEwing in their corner as well as a rotation led by Justin Edwards and Dylan Axelrod. The Dash will play their first postseason game tomorrow night against the Salem Red Sox, who are expected to start Daisuke Matsuzaka, and while anything can and often does happen in the playoffs, don’t expect the Carolina League crown to be coming the Dash’s way.

The Kannapolis Intimidators’ season has been all about their fantastic second half, in which they have a 45-24 record and a .652 winning percentage. Pitching was this team’s M.O. as they led the whole of the South Atlantic League with 530 runs allowed thanks to a rotation fronted by two of this organizations more intriguing starters, Charlie Leesman and Stephen Sauer (having Dexter Carter and Dan Hudson for a time didn’t hurt either). Even with losing one of it’s better arms, Charlis Burdie to the Dash, the Intimidators have one of the most formidable bullpen’s in the Minors, backed by Dan Remonowsky, ’09 draftee Kyle Bellamy and late season promotion Santos Rodriguez. Other ’09 draftees have played large parts in this team’s second half run, most notably two early round picks Jared Mitchell and Josh Phegley but also one later round pick, Joe Serafin. The Intimidators will play their first postseason game tomorrow against the Lakewood BlueClaws, with Charlie Leesman getting the start.

The final Sox affiliate to make the playoffs are the defending Pioneer League champions Great Falls, who swept their way past the Orem Owlz in the 2008 championship series behind the arms of Dan Hudson and Dexter Carter. This years Voyagers have been led by a steady dose of pitching and offense where the rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Pioneer League. The Voyagers have an old team for a rookie ball affiliate and as it stands Trayce Thompson is the only teen on their roster, he’s also roughly 2 ½ years younger than anyone else on the team, and it is partly for this reason that they don’t appear to be brimmed with future Major Leaguers. The Great Falls Voyagers will call upon it’s offensive stars Jose Vargas, Nick Ciolli, Johny Celis and Kyle Colligan to lead the team to victory when they start their playoff run against the Missoula Osprey’s this Saturday the 12th.

I’ll use this week’s edition to give you guys a preview of the Barons playoff run. Maybe it’s better this year that we don’t have Miguel Negron claiming that the Barons will “destroy” whomever they play seeing as they were swept out last season. How’s my confidence level about the Barons chances? About 50/50. We all know that momentum going into the playoffs is ever so important to a particular team’s odds. An honest assessment of the Barons heading down the home stretch is that of a team that is scuffling. With 8 games to go, but with a 4 game deficit in the division to Birmingham’s first round opponent Jacksonville, claiming both halves and getting up to 4 home games in the semis in a best of 5 series is unlikely. But with 85 wins, getting to 90 isn’t out of the question. Not only a notch in the team’s belt, but a momentum builder.

What am I concerned about? The pitching staff. There are 11 eligible pitchers for the Barons. In a best of 5, you’ll only need 3 starters. Those 3 will more than likely be Matt Long, Matt Zaleski and John Ely. The other two rotation members, Kyle McCulloch and Johnnie Lowe, will not start and Lowe likely won’t pitch at all. His scheduled start on Thursday may be his last outing of 2009. McCulloch will only log innings in a pinch or if one of the starters gets shelled. The aforementioned Justin Cassel said himself that he has been shut down for the year so that leaves the Barons with 9 pitchers. What about Charlie Shirek? He was removed from the rotation because of the amount of innings he’s logged already. The most in his professional career. Shirek has only pitched 7 1/3 innings in the last two and a half weeks so he will only be called upon in a pinch. Basically that leaves 8 men to carry the load. Clevelan Santeliz is the closer now, but with him charging the home plate umpire Saturday night, it remains to be seen what discipline he receives from the Southern League and how it will affect his playoff status. That leaves Johnny Lujan, Henry Mabee and Ricky Brooks. Lujan has really only pitched in garbage time, whether it be the Barons blowing someone out or getting blown out themselves. As long as Mabee keeps the ball down, he will be effective in 1 or 2 inning situations as a bridge to Santeliz. Brooks has a rubber arm and has been a workhorse since his promotion from Winston-Salem. He could pitch up to 4 innings if needed on a given night. As has been the case most of the season, the Barons do not feature any lefties out of the pen. Are you concerned as I am yet?

Even with losing Gordon Beckham, Stefan Gartrell, Brandon Allen and Tyler Flowers, the offense hasn’t fizzled in the second half. The additions of soon to be top 10 prospect Christian Marrero and the BB/RBI machine Jimmy Gallagher have leveled things out. With David Cook and his 24 homers and 82 RBI, Dayan Viciedo and his 10 homers and 73 RBI and C.J. Retherford and his 9 homers and 72 RBI, there’s plenty of offense left. A role player like veteran Javier Colina has contributed much to the team offensively and as a utility infielder. John Shelby III may act as our Dave Roberts and be a base stealing threat. Throw in the big bat of Lee Cruz, who can go deep at any point if he doesn’t hit a double to the gap. If Jordan Danks can get on base steadily at the top of the order, then the offense should have plenty of scoring opportunities. In a nutshell, the offense doesn’t concern me.

With Jacksonville being a Marlins affiliate, they feature a deep and talented pitching staff and several stud hitters. Plus, they’ve been the hottest team in the Southern League in the second half and the Barons dropped 4 out 5 to them on the road in a back breaking series at the end of July. But of course, in a 5 game series, anything can happen. And, as the song that plays every time the Barons score says, “it’s business time.”

As usual, requests for the next edition of JPNese can be made at Soxtalk.

Cheers,
JPN

White Sox prospects will be playing for the Peoria Javelinas along with prospects from the Tigers, Dodgers, Brewers and Mariners’ organizations. The seven representatives from the White Sox are; Justin Cassel, Johnnie Lowe, Jacob Rasner, Henry Mabee, C.J. Retherford, Dayan Viciedo and Jordan Danks.

One notable omission from the positional prospects is Tyler Flowers, the Sox may have felt that with the way he dominated the league last year there was no need sending him again, I think any opportunity to get him more reps behind the plate would surely have been a good thing. The White Sox usually impose a 160 inning cap for their pitching prospects which is likely why we aren’t seeing names like Dan Hudson, John Ely or Charlie Shirek on the roster, although they did send Poreda last year after he had already racked up 160 innings.

The AFL is always a fun league to track for a prospect junkie like myself due to its high concentration of top end prospects and I’m sure this year will be no different, especially with the inclusion of one certain phenom, Stephen Strasburg.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the first name I searched was Dayan Viciedo. Dayan’s been branded a butcher by many and for good reason as he’s racked up a substantial number of errors, but our man on the scene JPN wrote in his inaugural blog post that he thought the branding of “butcher” was harsh, and that Viciedo is more than capable of making the plays at 3B, so who do the numbers agree with, JPN, or the general consensus?
So far this season Dayan Viciedo comes in at +3 runs above the average Double-A fielder at 3B, which pro-rates out to +6 runs above average per 150 games. This was pleasantly surprising to me and even if we use an MLE translation he still comes out as a respectable -3 runs below average if he were playing in the Majors today, not bad for somebody branded by the scouts as too big and too slow to stick at third.

Next up is Jordan Danks. Jordan is considered by many to be a very good defensive centre fielder, thanks in a large part to his speed and athleticism but also to his sound baseball instincts. Jordan has split his time between two levels this year and with Winston-Salem he was actually a -7 runs below average fielder in CF (in very limited playing time), with Birmingham the number is better, with him coming in at +1 run above the average Double-A CF, and last year at Kannapolis he was a +2 runs above average. Still, I must say I am a little disappointed by these numbers and perhaps our hopes of perennial gold glove defense from Jordan should be tempered. I’d be willing to bet that the -7 defense at W-S ends up being an anomaly but as of right now it’s too early to tell.

John Shelby III is next on the list. From what I’ve heard John is supposed to be a passable centre fielder but more of a corner outfielder and left fielder in particular due to his less than stellar arm strength, but here’s what the numbers say.
Splitting his time between CF and LF, Shelby is a combined +12 runs above average and his +10 runs in CF project out to a ridiculous +28 runs above average per 150 games (+15 is considered outstanding). Last season Shelby was +4 runs above average again splitting his time between CF and LF and in 2007 he went a combined -20 runs below average (-10 at 2B, -9 in CF, -1 in RF). This either tells us that he’s made rapid improvements in the outfield, which is certainly plausible, or that the numbers are off somewhere down the line. If his numbers this year are accurate it only enhances his chances of becoming a 4th outfielder or better.

The next guy I haven’t been able to find much of a report on and that’s C.J. Retherford. C.J. recently made the transition to 2nd base so it will be interesting to see how he’s doing. This season at 2B C.J.’s been worth +3 runs, which is solid for someone new to the position. The previous two seasons he was a combined +13 runs at 3B, so he has been a good defender and I could see him becoming a pretty good defensive 2B with some more experience at the position.

The final guy who I’m going to do an in depth look at is Buddy Bell’s pet project Brent Morel, Buddy has been raving about Morels defensive ability, and if anyone’s going to know how to pick it at the hot corner it’s going to be him, so lets see if the numbers agree with Buddy. Last season between two levels Morel was a combined -2, but this season he has been a lot better at +5 runs which projects out to +9 runs above average per 150 games. The transition from college to the Minors could be one of the reasons for the sub par numbers in 2008 (the same can also apply for the other players), and while the stats this year don’t indicate a future gold glover they are pretty solid. I still question whether he’ll hit enough for third base though.

So what exactly should we take from these numbers? Probably not a lot in the case of Danks or Viciedo, players who have not been in the system long, as you really need at least two years of cohesive data in order to make any kind of accurate assessment, but since we only have one years worth of data for those guys that’s all we can go by. For players who have been in the system longer i.e. Retherford, and have put up consistently above average numbers, I think it would be reasonable to expect them to become average or better Major League defenders. A lot of people are vehemently against these advanced defensive statistics, and I imagine this is party due to the fact that they often disagree with the general consensus, but when the logic behind them is sound (as it is with TZ, UZR and +/-), I see no reason not to embrace them.