Retherford had 3 RBI including a 2-run HR in the 8th inning to give the Javelinas the lead for good in the final. However, overall, Retherford’s AFL didn’t go as well though. He got off to a hot start, but slumped the rest of the way to finish with lines of .246/.333/.348/.681 (not including the title game) in 69 AB. On the upside, he had seven walks and just nine strikeouts. Obviously, the AFL isn’t long enough for a healthy sample size, but it is encouraging to see C.J. walk more than normal and still have a good contact rate. He didn’t show a lot of power, but his two HR came against Stephen Strasburg and in the title game. He’s been getting more attention as he nears the Majors, but a projection as a utility man (possibly even an above-average one) still remains reasonable and likely.

The highlight of the AFL from the Sox standpoint has been Brent Morel. Morel captured the league batting title after hitting .435 (27-62). Before everyone gets too excited, he only had four extra base hits and four walks. He’s not likely to be a star hitter, but he plays good defense and makes contact. What more could you want out of a third baseman? The question becomes what his ETA is. Morel is more than likely going to start in AA to start 2010 putting him 1-2 years away still. Mark Teahan’s arrival probably puts the Sox in no rush to move Morel through the upper levels of the system.

Meanwhile, Jordan Danks finished in the top five in hits, walks and OBP and led the league in runs scored (31). Danks plays good center field and the scouts agreed in various reports out of Arizona. He had a great walk rate (20 in 99 AB) and hit .343, but the concern has been contact rate and he did nothing to change that. He struck out in almost 22% of his plate appearances in Arizona, staying in line with his 2009 numbers in Winston-Salem and Birmingham. He doesn’t project to hit for big power so he will need to improve that to be a successful hitter in the Majors. At the same time, a good defensive center fielder that can get on-base will always have a job.

On the pitching side, no one made a big impression. Kyle Bellamy pitched well, but joined the league late and only pitched 5.2 innings. Matt Long continued the success he had with the Barons late this year, but his high 80s fastball makes him only a fringe prospect. Sergio Santos showed his usual (high velocity, lots of strikeouts and no control) and Justin Cassel and Jacob Rasner had tough times in the fall league.

As for the changes, the most notable is Brent Morel replacing the injured Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo had right elbow inflammation, which is really disappointing because the AFL was a great opportunity for Viciedo to show he is the elite prospect the Sox paid for. Morel has been unspectacular so far in the Cuban’s place. Morel is hitting .280 (7-25), but has no extra base hits and only one walk.

The other addition, reliever Kyle Bellamy, is further proof that Bellamy is the favorite to be the first from the 2009 draft class to make it to the Majors. He’s only pitched two innings, but the former Miami Hurricane has yet to allow a run.

As for the original Javelinas, Jordan Danks is leading the way. He was named to the AFL’s all-star type Rising Stars game that takes place Saturday. Hitting .333 (22-66) he is fourth in the league in OBP at .450, second in runs with 20 and tied for fourth in walks with 13. Most importantly for Danks, he’s only struck out 14 times in 79 plate appearances. Strike out rate has been a noteworthy concern regarding Danks, but so far so good in the AFL.

Meanwhile, C.J. Retherford has been slumping. He is 1 for his last 18 and his average for the fall is down to .255. Early on he was creating a lot of buzz as a competitor for the second base job, or least the backup at some point next season, but the Chris Getz and Josh Fields for Mark Teahen trade complicates things. Gordon Beckham is supposedly moving to second base, locking down that position, but Retherford still may get a shot to battle Jayson Nix for reserve infielder.

The rest of the pitchers aren’t the flashy prospects among the White Sox representatives, but Matt Long has been the best of the group (10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 7 K, 1 BB). Sergio Santos (9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB) has at least shown the strikeout rate you hope for from a pitcher with plus velocity. Justin Cassel (14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA) and Jacob Rasner (2.1 IP, 27 ERA) have struggled and are fading away into non-prospect territory.

Note: stats are through games of November 5.

The Peoria Javelinas, the club where the White Sox prospects are playing, is 5-3 with a league leading .332 batting average. Yes, .332 as a team. The AFL is certainly a hitters’ league and the White Sox hitters have contributed to that. Let’s start by taking a look at how the Sox hitters are doing through the Javelinas’ first 8 games.

C.J. Retherford: 6-15 (.400), 2 3B, 5 RBI, 2 R, BB, K, .438 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.104 OPS

Jordan Danks: 8-22 (.364), 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1/1 SBA, .462 OBP, .727 SLG, 1.189 OPS

Dayan Viciedo: 6-18 (.333), 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, BB, 6 K

The three hitters the Sox sent to the Phoenix area are clearly the team’s best AFL prospects. All three are off to a hot start in the heat of Arizona. It’s nice to see Danks hit for power, even if it’s in Arizona. The same goes for Viciedo, but striking out in almost 1/3 of his plate appearances is a concern. Danks and Viciedo have a strong case to be the two most intriguing White Sox hitting prospects in 2010 because both are coming off disappointing seasons and are well regarded talents. As for Retherford, he continues to hit at every level. He could be a third contender for playing time at second base next year with a good spring and a hot start in AAA.

Meanwhile, the pitchers haven’t been as successful, which isn’t much of a surprise.

Justin Cassel: 5.2 IP, 9.53 ERA, 8 R (6 ER), 6 K, 2 BB, 11 H in 2 starts

Sergio Santos: 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3 R, 5 K, BB, 7 H (2 HR) in 3 games

Matt Long: 5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 8 H in 3 games

Jacob Rasner: 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5 R, 0 K, BB, 6 H in 2 games

The Sox sent a bunch of fringe prospects to Arizona, but Santos is a more interesting case. The converted infielder has big time heat on his fastball, but needs to refine his stuff. If he improves he could become a high upside reliever. As for the others, Cassel and Rasner are running out of chances. An awful 2009 from Cassel bumped his prospect status and Rasner has been mediocre throughout his career. Long, a 2nd rounder in 2006, had a strong campaign for the Barons, pitching out of the bullpen for the first time since 2006. However, his fastball is only in the high 80s and the rest of his stuff hasn’t been as good as expected so it’s hard to see him as a top prospect.

Let’s not put too much stock into barely more than a week in a fall league, but the Arizona Fall League is a true hidden gem of baseball and is worth following if you are going through early offseason anxiety. For daily updates on the AFL follow us on our Twitter and check out the AFL home page.

What does the future hold for the current members of the Barons roster? As we all know, in minor league baseball there’s no telling where everybody will be the following year. I’ll go through the roster and see if I can show some clairvoyance.

Is Donny Lucy done? Myself as well as my astute wife, a self professed “people watcher,” think he has the body language that screams “I’m done.” It would be a shame though, he is tough as nails and is a great game caller. Although, it would be wise of the organization to keep the Stanford educated Lucy around in a coaching capacity. Jared Price could likely return as a Triple-A backup. His knowledge of the pitchers in the system would help with catching continuity, which is vital because you can’t just sign a catcher off the street mid-year. He’s only 27, and although he’s a feast or famine hitter, he is solid behind the plate and in the community visiting sick children in the hospital and doing loads of charity work.

I expect Jordan Danks, Christian Marrero, John Shelby III and Jim Gallagher to spend at least part of 2010 with the Barons. I’d say that only Gallagher will be here the whole year, although he could move up late. Danks, Shelby III and Marrero should hit their way to Charlotte by the middle of the season.

David Cook, Javier Colina, Robbie Hudson and Lee Cruz may likely be in other organizations in 2010. If Cook’s contract with the White Sox is up, then I’d imagine he’s had his fill with this organization. There may be better opportunities for him elsewhere. He will be missed in Birmingham, although I think there is an outside chance he’ll play in Charlotte. Cruz, Hudson and Colina could all play in Charlotte as well, but I think at least two of them will be gone. Colina is a 30 year old minor league journeyman. Hudson, 26, is versatile defensively and clutch with the bat, although a light hitter overall. And Cruz is 26 and hasn’t done all that well since being drafted in 2006, but he’s shown some flashes of big time power.

C.J. Retherford, Dayan Viciedo, John Ely and Clevelan Santeliz all are primed and ready for a full season at Charlotte in 2010. All of them had impressive years and would benefit from the challenge of Triple-A competition.

The rest of the pitching staff is a mixed bag. Justin Cassel peaked in 2008, Kyle McCulloch has not progressed at all after 2 full seasons with Birmingham. In fact, he hasn’t had an extended run of success since the summer of 2007, prior to his promotion to Birmingham. Johnnie Lowe’s initial tour of Double-A reminded me of McCulloch’s first starts with the Barons. Johnny Lujan can’t seem to harness his stuff to be successful and may end up being released. Other “meh” pitchers Matt Long, Matt Zaleski, Ricky Brooks, Henry Mabee and Jacob Marceaux could return, could move on or could be in Charlotte. Mabee’s the only one who could still turn out to be a prospect in my mind. Meanwhile, Charlie Shirek had a good season overall and will likely return for at least half the season to anchor the Barons rotation.

I’m guessing that the Barons 2010 opening day roster will include catchers Logan Johnson, John Curtis and Adam Ricks. Infielders Jim Gallagher, Greg Paiml, Dale Mollenhauer, Brent Morel, Seth Loman, Joe Persichina and C.J. Lang. Outfielders Christian Marrero, Jordan Danks, John Shelby III and Salvador Sanchez. Pitchers Charlie Shirek, Henry Mabee, Ricky Brooks, Miguel Socolovich, Hector Santiago, Jacob Rasner, Nathan Jones, Anthony Carter, Wander Perez, Levi Maxwell, Santo Luis, Kyle Bellamy and Dan Remenowsky. Of course, with trades, releases, Rule V drafts and free agents, things could change dramatically. If the White Sox do not retain Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik, I could see former Barons outfielder Stefan Gartrell getting a shot in spring training next year.

With the Barons season ending, I’ll be putting the weekly JPNese on hiatus until next spring. Although, if anyone has a specific request, I would be happy to write one from time to time. Somebody wake me up when spring training begins…it’s been real, guys.

Cheers,
JPN

Hot Hitter: Lee Cruz. After a great stint in Birmingham to end last season Lee Cruz has had a disappoint year and the power in particular hasn’t been there, but last week was a good one for Cruz. In five games with the Barons Cruz went 9-23 (.391), with two doubles and two home runs (.739 SLG), he didn’t walk at all though, leaving his OPS at 1.130. At 26, Cruz is old for his level and he would have needed to put up great numbers to break his way onto the prospect map, but it hasn’t happened for him. He’s just organizational depth at this point.

Cold Pitcher: Jacob Rasner. One of the more frequent names on the hot and cold list, Rasner finds his way on again and for the wrong reasons. A two start week for Rasner culminated in him giving up 12 ER in 8.1 IP (12.97 ERA), with 15 hits and 3 walks allowed (2.22 WHIP) against 5 strikeouts. Rasner will be pitching in the Arizona Fall League next month, and while he does show some promise as a prospect, I can’t help but think that there are one or two pitchers more deserving of an AFL roster spot than him.

Cold Hitter: Jordan Danks. Mired in a month long slump, Jordan finds his way onto the hot and cold list again as our cold hitter of the week. Jordan gets here by going just 1-16 (.063) with one walk (.118 OBP) and one home run (.250 SLG), good for a measly .368 OPS. Like Rasner, Jordan will also be playing in the AFL next month, but given his recent performances and two stints on the DL, I wonder if he would be better off just going home this winter and making sure that wrist is fully healed and ready to go for next season.

White Sox prospects will be playing for the Peoria Javelinas along with prospects from the Tigers, Dodgers, Brewers and Mariners’ organizations. The seven representatives from the White Sox are; Justin Cassel, Johnnie Lowe, Jacob Rasner, Henry Mabee, C.J. Retherford, Dayan Viciedo and Jordan Danks.

One notable omission from the positional prospects is Tyler Flowers, the Sox may have felt that with the way he dominated the league last year there was no need sending him again, I think any opportunity to get him more reps behind the plate would surely have been a good thing. The White Sox usually impose a 160 inning cap for their pitching prospects which is likely why we aren’t seeing names like Dan Hudson, John Ely or Charlie Shirek on the roster, although they did send Poreda last year after he had already racked up 160 innings.

The AFL is always a fun league to track for a prospect junkie like myself due to its high concentration of top end prospects and I’m sure this year will be no different, especially with the inclusion of one certain phenom, Stephen Strasburg.

Cold Pitcher: Johnnie Lowe. As with the hot pitcher of the week it was difficult to find a cold pitcher, so I had to settle for a 24 year old starter who gave up 7 earned runs in 0.2 innings pitched, resulting in a 94.5 ERA and 12.12 WHIP. Lowe has been downright awful since joining Birmingham at the beginning of the month; in 4 starts he has a 10.70 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.

Cold Hitter: Tyler Kuhn. In this last week Kuhn has been ice cold, he’s 5 for his last 30 (.167 AVG), with 2 walks (.219 OBP) and 1 double (.200 SLG), totalling a .419 OPS. Kuhn showed great potential last season after being drafted in the 15th round of the 2008 draft, he posted a .995 OPS in 62 games with the Voyagers. He flashed very good power potential that year with a .195 IsoP, but this year his power has vanished and he’s become more of a hit and run type player. I preferred last year’s Tyler Kuhn, but the law of sample sizes tells us that this year’s version of Kuhn is probably the real one.

Hot Hitter: C.J. Retherford. C.J. continued his strong season by having another great week for the Barons. In six games he went a combined 10-24 (.417), with two walks (.462 OBP) and 4 doubles (.583 SLG) which was good for a 1.045 OPS. Retherford combines strong defense, gritty attitude and solid doubles power to make him a legitimate Major League prospect.

Cold Pitcher: Jacob Rasner. This was the easiest pick of the week. In Rasner’s last two starts he gave up a combined 13 earned runs in 8.1 innings giving him a 14.05 ERA over that span with a 2.52 WHIP. Jacob was having a solid season for the Dash putting himself firmly onto our radar but his last 6 starts have been very poor. Rasner is still just 22 though, so there is time for him.

Cold Hitter: Seth Loman. Seth Loman and Brent Morel have been two of the very few bright spots in an otherwise anaemic Winston-Salem Dash offense, but even your best hitters aren’t immune to slumps, as was proven by Seth Loman this past week. Since August 12th Loman has picked up just 2 hits in 25 AB’s (.080 BA) with 2 walks (.148 OBP) and 1 double (.120 SLG), giving him a .268 OPS.