Retherford had 3 RBI including a 2-run HR in the 8th inning to give the Javelinas the lead for good in the final. However, overall, Retherford’s AFL didn’t go as well though. He got off to a hot start, but slumped the rest of the way to finish with lines of .246/.333/.348/.681 (not including the title game) in 69 AB. On the upside, he had seven walks and just nine strikeouts. Obviously, the AFL isn’t long enough for a healthy sample size, but it is encouraging to see C.J. walk more than normal and still have a good contact rate. He didn’t show a lot of power, but his two HR came against Stephen Strasburg and in the title game. He’s been getting more attention as he nears the Majors, but a projection as a utility man (possibly even an above-average one) still remains reasonable and likely.

The highlight of the AFL from the Sox standpoint has been Brent Morel. Morel captured the league batting title after hitting .435 (27-62). Before everyone gets too excited, he only had four extra base hits and four walks. He’s not likely to be a star hitter, but he plays good defense and makes contact. What more could you want out of a third baseman? The question becomes what his ETA is. Morel is more than likely going to start in AA to start 2010 putting him 1-2 years away still. Mark Teahan’s arrival probably puts the Sox in no rush to move Morel through the upper levels of the system.

Meanwhile, Jordan Danks finished in the top five in hits, walks and OBP and led the league in runs scored (31). Danks plays good center field and the scouts agreed in various reports out of Arizona. He had a great walk rate (20 in 99 AB) and hit .343, but the concern has been contact rate and he did nothing to change that. He struck out in almost 22% of his plate appearances in Arizona, staying in line with his 2009 numbers in Winston-Salem and Birmingham. He doesn’t project to hit for big power so he will need to improve that to be a successful hitter in the Majors. At the same time, a good defensive center fielder that can get on-base will always have a job.

On the pitching side, no one made a big impression. Kyle Bellamy pitched well, but joined the league late and only pitched 5.2 innings. Matt Long continued the success he had with the Barons late this year, but his high 80s fastball makes him only a fringe prospect. Sergio Santos showed his usual (high velocity, lots of strikeouts and no control) and Justin Cassel and Jacob Rasner had tough times in the fall league.

As for the changes, the most notable is Brent Morel replacing the injured Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo had right elbow inflammation, which is really disappointing because the AFL was a great opportunity for Viciedo to show he is the elite prospect the Sox paid for. Morel has been unspectacular so far in the Cuban’s place. Morel is hitting .280 (7-25), but has no extra base hits and only one walk.

The other addition, reliever Kyle Bellamy, is further proof that Bellamy is the favorite to be the first from the 2009 draft class to make it to the Majors. He’s only pitched two innings, but the former Miami Hurricane has yet to allow a run.

As for the original Javelinas, Jordan Danks is leading the way. He was named to the AFL’s all-star type Rising Stars game that takes place Saturday. Hitting .333 (22-66) he is fourth in the league in OBP at .450, second in runs with 20 and tied for fourth in walks with 13. Most importantly for Danks, he’s only struck out 14 times in 79 plate appearances. Strike out rate has been a noteworthy concern regarding Danks, but so far so good in the AFL.

Meanwhile, C.J. Retherford has been slumping. He is 1 for his last 18 and his average for the fall is down to .255. Early on he was creating a lot of buzz as a competitor for the second base job, or least the backup at some point next season, but the Chris Getz and Josh Fields for Mark Teahen trade complicates things. Gordon Beckham is supposedly moving to second base, locking down that position, but Retherford still may get a shot to battle Jayson Nix for reserve infielder.

The rest of the pitchers aren’t the flashy prospects among the White Sox representatives, but Matt Long has been the best of the group (10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 7 K, 1 BB). Sergio Santos (9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB) has at least shown the strikeout rate you hope for from a pitcher with plus velocity. Justin Cassel (14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA) and Jacob Rasner (2.1 IP, 27 ERA) have struggled and are fading away into non-prospect territory.

Note: stats are through games of November 5.

The Peoria Javelinas, the club where the White Sox prospects are playing, is 5-3 with a league leading .332 batting average. Yes, .332 as a team. The AFL is certainly a hitters’ league and the White Sox hitters have contributed to that. Let’s start by taking a look at how the Sox hitters are doing through the Javelinas’ first 8 games.

C.J. Retherford: 6-15 (.400), 2 3B, 5 RBI, 2 R, BB, K, .438 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.104 OPS

Jordan Danks: 8-22 (.364), 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1/1 SBA, .462 OBP, .727 SLG, 1.189 OPS

Dayan Viciedo: 6-18 (.333), 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, BB, 6 K

The three hitters the Sox sent to the Phoenix area are clearly the team’s best AFL prospects. All three are off to a hot start in the heat of Arizona. It’s nice to see Danks hit for power, even if it’s in Arizona. The same goes for Viciedo, but striking out in almost 1/3 of his plate appearances is a concern. Danks and Viciedo have a strong case to be the two most intriguing White Sox hitting prospects in 2010 because both are coming off disappointing seasons and are well regarded talents. As for Retherford, he continues to hit at every level. He could be a third contender for playing time at second base next year with a good spring and a hot start in AAA.

Meanwhile, the pitchers haven’t been as successful, which isn’t much of a surprise.

Justin Cassel: 5.2 IP, 9.53 ERA, 8 R (6 ER), 6 K, 2 BB, 11 H in 2 starts

Sergio Santos: 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3 R, 5 K, BB, 7 H (2 HR) in 3 games

Matt Long: 5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 8 H in 3 games

Jacob Rasner: 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5 R, 0 K, BB, 6 H in 2 games

The Sox sent a bunch of fringe prospects to Arizona, but Santos is a more interesting case. The converted infielder has big time heat on his fastball, but needs to refine his stuff. If he improves he could become a high upside reliever. As for the others, Cassel and Rasner are running out of chances. An awful 2009 from Cassel bumped his prospect status and Rasner has been mediocre throughout his career. Long, a 2nd rounder in 2006, had a strong campaign for the Barons, pitching out of the bullpen for the first time since 2006. However, his fastball is only in the high 80s and the rest of his stuff hasn’t been as good as expected so it’s hard to see him as a top prospect.

Let’s not put too much stock into barely more than a week in a fall league, but the Arizona Fall League is a true hidden gem of baseball and is worth following if you are going through early offseason anxiety. For daily updates on the AFL follow us on our Twitter and check out the AFL home page.

What does the future hold for the current members of the Barons roster? As we all know, in minor league baseball there’s no telling where everybody will be the following year. I’ll go through the roster and see if I can show some clairvoyance.

Is Donny Lucy done? Myself as well as my astute wife, a self professed “people watcher,” think he has the body language that screams “I’m done.” It would be a shame though, he is tough as nails and is a great game caller. Although, it would be wise of the organization to keep the Stanford educated Lucy around in a coaching capacity. Jared Price could likely return as a Triple-A backup. His knowledge of the pitchers in the system would help with catching continuity, which is vital because you can’t just sign a catcher off the street mid-year. He’s only 27, and although he’s a feast or famine hitter, he is solid behind the plate and in the community visiting sick children in the hospital and doing loads of charity work.

I expect Jordan Danks, Christian Marrero, John Shelby III and Jim Gallagher to spend at least part of 2010 with the Barons. I’d say that only Gallagher will be here the whole year, although he could move up late. Danks, Shelby III and Marrero should hit their way to Charlotte by the middle of the season.

David Cook, Javier Colina, Robbie Hudson and Lee Cruz may likely be in other organizations in 2010. If Cook’s contract with the White Sox is up, then I’d imagine he’s had his fill with this organization. There may be better opportunities for him elsewhere. He will be missed in Birmingham, although I think there is an outside chance he’ll play in Charlotte. Cruz, Hudson and Colina could all play in Charlotte as well, but I think at least two of them will be gone. Colina is a 30 year old minor league journeyman. Hudson, 26, is versatile defensively and clutch with the bat, although a light hitter overall. And Cruz is 26 and hasn’t done all that well since being drafted in 2006, but he’s shown some flashes of big time power.

C.J. Retherford, Dayan Viciedo, John Ely and Clevelan Santeliz all are primed and ready for a full season at Charlotte in 2010. All of them had impressive years and would benefit from the challenge of Triple-A competition.

The rest of the pitching staff is a mixed bag. Justin Cassel peaked in 2008, Kyle McCulloch has not progressed at all after 2 full seasons with Birmingham. In fact, he hasn’t had an extended run of success since the summer of 2007, prior to his promotion to Birmingham. Johnnie Lowe’s initial tour of Double-A reminded me of McCulloch’s first starts with the Barons. Johnny Lujan can’t seem to harness his stuff to be successful and may end up being released. Other “meh” pitchers Matt Long, Matt Zaleski, Ricky Brooks, Henry Mabee and Jacob Marceaux could return, could move on or could be in Charlotte. Mabee’s the only one who could still turn out to be a prospect in my mind. Meanwhile, Charlie Shirek had a good season overall and will likely return for at least half the season to anchor the Barons rotation.

I’m guessing that the Barons 2010 opening day roster will include catchers Logan Johnson, John Curtis and Adam Ricks. Infielders Jim Gallagher, Greg Paiml, Dale Mollenhauer, Brent Morel, Seth Loman, Joe Persichina and C.J. Lang. Outfielders Christian Marrero, Jordan Danks, John Shelby III and Salvador Sanchez. Pitchers Charlie Shirek, Henry Mabee, Ricky Brooks, Miguel Socolovich, Hector Santiago, Jacob Rasner, Nathan Jones, Anthony Carter, Wander Perez, Levi Maxwell, Santo Luis, Kyle Bellamy and Dan Remenowsky. Of course, with trades, releases, Rule V drafts and free agents, things could change dramatically. If the White Sox do not retain Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik, I could see former Barons outfielder Stefan Gartrell getting a shot in spring training next year.

With the Barons season ending, I’ll be putting the weekly JPNese on hiatus until next spring. Although, if anyone has a specific request, I would be happy to write one from time to time. Somebody wake me up when spring training begins…it’s been real, guys.

Cheers,
JPN

After having an OPS below .600 all year long, Escobar swung a big stick in August. He also stole 9 bases in August, almost doubling the 11 he had entering the month. Escobar showed no signs of life until suddenly something seems to have clicked. On the season the 20 year-old Venezuelan is still only hitting .262, but he is a great defensive shortstop so his glove will probably be what carries him through the system. He’s still very young and an extended hot streak like this is obviously very encouraging for future success. The extremely unusual part is that Escobar’s August walk rate was nearly three times what it had been. It’s like he was a completely different player. We’ll have to wait and see which player shows up next season.

Co-Pitchers of the Month: John Ely and Matt Long (AA Birmingham)
Ely: 5-0, 2.12 ERA, 34 IP, 25 K, 9 BB, 27 H
Long: 4-0, 1.76 ERA, 30.2 IP, 19 K, 8 BB, 23 H

Since the two were so close statistically and in our voting, we have given the award to both Ely and Long. The duo will have to anchor the Barons’ playoff run, though Long did just receive what we assume was a spot start with the Knights. Ely has been a rock for the Barons’ all season long, see his 13-2 record for proof, and is throwing his name into the hat for a future MLB look. He’s mostly been overlooked as a prospect, but this season will change that. Long was a 2nd round pick in 2006, but hasn’t been regarded well as a prospect because he has been mediocre or worse at every stop of his pro career. That is until he joined the Barons this season. In 48.2 innings in AA he has a 2.59 ERA between 6 starts and 13 relief appearances. His career ERA in the minors still sits above 5, so like Escobar, it’s hard to tell which player is the real Matt Long.

The best of the rest
Christian Marrero (AA Birmingham): .323 (31-96), 7 HR, 20 RBI, 15 R, 12 BB, 22 K, 1.040 OPS
Marrero has really set himself up to shoot up the prospect rankings. Marrero can be one of the last draft-and-follows to make the Majors.

David Cook (AA Birmingham): .292 (28/96), 6 HR, 18 RBI, 25 R, 15 BB, 20 K, .956 OPS
Cook keeps producing for the Barons, but it’s hard to call him a prospect anymore.

Jon Gilmore (Low-A Kannapolis): .355 (39/110), 2 HR, 24 RBI, 19 R, 9 BB, 15 K, .901 OPS
Finally Gilmore showed some of the talent that made the Braves draft him in the supplemental round in 2007.

Dan Remenowsky (Low-A Kannapolis): 2-0, 5 SV, 2.20 ERA, 16 IP, 29 K, 2 BB, 11 H
It’s hard not to love what Remenowsky has done this season. 107 strikeouts in 62.1 innings is indescribably good.

Miguel Gonzalez (Rookie Bristol): .410 (25/61), 1 HR, 8 RBI, 15 R, 13 BB, 14 K, 1.176 OPS
Gonzalez is a great looking prospect at catcher. He’s only 18 and hit .311 at Bristol, you have to like that.

Santos Rodriguez (Rookie Bristol): 1-0, 2 SV, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 18 K, 3 BB, 8 H
One of the pieces of the Javier Vazquez trade, Rodriguez is one of few relief prospects to be tracked from a young age.

The not as hot
Jack Egbert (AAA Charlotte): 0-3, 6.66 ERA, 25 IP, 20 K, 10 BB, 35 H
Egbert got his shot in the Majors this year, but it didn’t go well or last long. Needless to say, he won’t get another pitching like this.

Wes Whisler (AAA Charlotte): 3-3, 6.16 ERA, 30 IP, 14 K, 14 BB, 40 H
Everything I said about Egbert applies to Whisler.

Johnnie Lowe (AA Birmingham): 0-4, 10.07 ERA, 22 IP, 10 K, 5 BB, 41 H
Maybe Lowe shouldn’t have been moved up because his 5 starts with the Barons have produced nothing.

Jordan Danks (AA Birmingham): .178 (13-73), 4 RBI, 12 R, 10 BB, 17 K, .491 OPS
He’s been better since coming off the DL, hitting .257 and getting a hit in 7 of the 9 games he has been back. Still major concerns have come up that didn’t exist in early June.

Tyler Kuhn (High-A Winston-Salem): .229 (22-96), 6 RBI, 8 R, 5 BB, 14 K, .543 OPS
Kuhn has been very good this year, but his recent slump along with a severe lack of power this year makes Kuhn seem ordinary as a prospect.

Steven Upchurch (Rookie Bristol): 0-6, 9.11 ERA, 27 IP, 12 K, 12 BB, 45 H
Upchurch is a talented pitcher, but he hasn’t shown any of that talent this year. He’s probably surpassed Escobar as the most disappointing White Sox prospect of the year.

I’ll use this week’s edition to give you guys a preview of the Barons playoff run. Maybe it’s better this year that we don’t have Miguel Negron claiming that the Barons will “destroy” whomever they play seeing as they were swept out last season. How’s my confidence level about the Barons chances? About 50/50. We all know that momentum going into the playoffs is ever so important to a particular team’s odds. An honest assessment of the Barons heading down the home stretch is that of a team that is scuffling. With 8 games to go, but with a 4 game deficit in the division to Birmingham’s first round opponent Jacksonville, claiming both halves and getting up to 4 home games in the semis in a best of 5 series is unlikely. But with 85 wins, getting to 90 isn’t out of the question. Not only a notch in the team’s belt, but a momentum builder.

What am I concerned about? The pitching staff. There are 11 eligible pitchers for the Barons. In a best of 5, you’ll only need 3 starters. Those 3 will more than likely be Matt Long, Matt Zaleski and John Ely. The other two rotation members, Kyle McCulloch and Johnnie Lowe, will not start and Lowe likely won’t pitch at all. His scheduled start on Thursday may be his last outing of 2009. McCulloch will only log innings in a pinch or if one of the starters gets shelled. The aforementioned Justin Cassel said himself that he has been shut down for the year so that leaves the Barons with 9 pitchers. What about Charlie Shirek? He was removed from the rotation because of the amount of innings he’s logged already. The most in his professional career. Shirek has only pitched 7 1/3 innings in the last two and a half weeks so he will only be called upon in a pinch. Basically that leaves 8 men to carry the load. Clevelan Santeliz is the closer now, but with him charging the home plate umpire Saturday night, it remains to be seen what discipline he receives from the Southern League and how it will affect his playoff status. That leaves Johnny Lujan, Henry Mabee and Ricky Brooks. Lujan has really only pitched in garbage time, whether it be the Barons blowing someone out or getting blown out themselves. As long as Mabee keeps the ball down, he will be effective in 1 or 2 inning situations as a bridge to Santeliz. Brooks has a rubber arm and has been a workhorse since his promotion from Winston-Salem. He could pitch up to 4 innings if needed on a given night. As has been the case most of the season, the Barons do not feature any lefties out of the pen. Are you concerned as I am yet?

Even with losing Gordon Beckham, Stefan Gartrell, Brandon Allen and Tyler Flowers, the offense hasn’t fizzled in the second half. The additions of soon to be top 10 prospect Christian Marrero and the BB/RBI machine Jimmy Gallagher have leveled things out. With David Cook and his 24 homers and 82 RBI, Dayan Viciedo and his 10 homers and 73 RBI and C.J. Retherford and his 9 homers and 72 RBI, there’s plenty of offense left. A role player like veteran Javier Colina has contributed much to the team offensively and as a utility infielder. John Shelby III may act as our Dave Roberts and be a base stealing threat. Throw in the big bat of Lee Cruz, who can go deep at any point if he doesn’t hit a double to the gap. If Jordan Danks can get on base steadily at the top of the order, then the offense should have plenty of scoring opportunities. In a nutshell, the offense doesn’t concern me.

With Jacksonville being a Marlins affiliate, they feature a deep and talented pitching staff and several stud hitters. Plus, they’ve been the hottest team in the Southern League in the second half and the Barons dropped 4 out 5 to them on the road in a back breaking series at the end of July. But of course, in a 5 game series, anything can happen. And, as the song that plays every time the Barons score says, “it’s business time.”

As usual, requests for the next edition of JPNese can be made at Soxtalk.

Cheers,
JPN

Hot Hitter: C.J. Retherford. C.J. continued his strong season by having another great week for the Barons. In six games he went a combined 10-24 (.417), with two walks (.462 OBP) and 4 doubles (.583 SLG) which was good for a 1.045 OPS. Retherford combines strong defense, gritty attitude and solid doubles power to make him a legitimate Major League prospect.

Cold Pitcher: Jacob Rasner. This was the easiest pick of the week. In Rasner’s last two starts he gave up a combined 13 earned runs in 8.1 innings giving him a 14.05 ERA over that span with a 2.52 WHIP. Jacob was having a solid season for the Dash putting himself firmly onto our radar but his last 6 starts have been very poor. Rasner is still just 22 though, so there is time for him.

Cold Hitter: Seth Loman. Seth Loman and Brent Morel have been two of the very few bright spots in an otherwise anaemic Winston-Salem Dash offense, but even your best hitters aren’t immune to slumps, as was proven by Seth Loman this past week. Since August 12th Loman has picked up just 2 hits in 25 AB’s (.080 BA) with 2 walks (.148 OBP) and 1 double (.120 SLG), giving him a .268 OPS.

1 (29) – Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Texas
Stats to date: 25-33, 4,26 ERA, 1.479 WHIP, 279K/157BB, 449.2 IP

Kyle McCulloch, a soft tossing righty out of Texas was a pick very much in the mold of 2005 first rounder Lance Broadway, and to date, neither or these two look like future big leaguers. McCulloch made a nice start to his pro career after signing for just over $1m, he posted a 1.61 ERA at rookie level Great Falls in 22.1 IP with a 27/7 K/BB rate. He was then promoted to high-A Winston-Salem and this is where things quickly started to deteriorate, his strikeout rate plummeted from 10.9 K/9 to just 5.3 K/9 and his walk rate jumped from 2.8 BB/9 to 4.3 BB/9, this resulted in a 4.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. McCulloch improved at the start of the 2007 season but the strikeout rate was a still disappointing 6.5 K/9 and this only got worse with a late season promotion to Double-A Birmingham. The last season and a half McCulloch has done nothing more than just “exist”, he’s posted an ERA around 4.5, with a WHIP around 1.5 to go along with sub-5 K/9 rates. This year has been his best in terms of limiting the free passes with his BB/9 rate sitting at 2.1, but even still, it is near impossible to project a 24 year old Double-A “prospect” who is striking out a meager 4.3 batters per 9 innings as anything more than Minor League filler.

2 (73) – Matt Long, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
Stats to date: 19-22, 5.47 ERA, 1.535 WHIP, 237K/99BB, 303 IP

Matt Long tantalized scouts as a top Ohio high school prospect with his long, lean frame and projectable arm but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2004 and was rehabilitating for most of 2005. He recovered well from the surgery however and with a strong 2006 season pushed his way up to the 2nd round of the draft. Long was assigned to Kannapolis after signing where he pitched out of the bullpen and the results were horrendous with him putting up an ERA in the low 8’s and a 1.90 WHIP. It wasn’t until last year that Long started to show some promise, but even then he was a 24 year old pitching in High Class-A, making his 8.1 K/9 rate a lot less impressive than it might have otherwise been. At this point Long does not look like much of a prospect and I’d be surprised if he ever sees more than a token stint in the Majors.

3 (105) – Justin Edwards, LHP, Olympia HS, Orlando
Stats to date: 15-19, 5.09 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, 186K/86BB, 252 IP

Edwards was drafted out of a Florida high school boasting an impressive three pitch arsenal, but it didn’t serve him well at the start of his pro career. After signing, Edwards was assigned to Bristol where he posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Walks were his main problem with his BB/9 rate sitting at 3.6. Edwards’ 2007 season wasn’t much better, but at 19 and pitching in A ball, he was pretty young for his level. Justin missed all of the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery but he recovered quickly and was able to take the mound again to start the 2009 season. Justin has been much better at limiting the walks this year posting a BB/9 rate of 1.4 as opposed to his career average of 3.1, he also has an impressive K/BB rate of 4.00. Because of the TJ surgery it is difficult to grade this pick as we haven’t seen enough from Edwards to get a true feel for his potential.

4 (135) – Tyler Reves, C, Texas Tech
Stats to date: .243 AVG, .297 OBP, .365 SLG, 33.1 XB%

Tyler Reves played just two years in the White Sox system before being released. He was drafted, believe it or not, as an offense-first catcher with scouts stating that his bat would have to carry him to the bigs as his defense behind the plate was severely lacking. Obviously we now know that the bat wasn’t much to rave about either.

5 (165) – John Shelby, 2B/OF, Kentucky
Stats to date: .283 AVG, .335 OBP, .475 SLG, 40.9 XB%

Shelby went undrafted out of high school but flashed some promising tools at Kentucky leading him to be drafted in the 5th round. After signing he was assigned to Great Falls and he showed us more or less exactly what was expected of him, a good speed/power combination with a lot of strikeouts and not a lot of walks. Shelby’s next two years went roughly the same as his first except with one big change; he was moved from 2B to the outfield. Shelby is one of this organization’s top 10-15 prospects and there is a lot of potential in him, but there is also a lot not to like about his game. I think of Shelby as a lesser Chris Young, he doesn’t have Young’s defensive ability and his power potential is a tick lower but the rest of their game is similar, they can both steal a lot of bases, they both strike out too much and neither of them walk enough, resulting in low batting averages and low on-base percentages. Shelby could become a starting ML outfielder but I consider him more as a potential 4th outfielder and pinch runner, but nonetheless, this pick should be considered a good one. Getting a possible starter in the 5th round without going over slot on the signing bonus is a job well done on the scout’s side.

6 (195) – Brian Omogrosso, RHP, Indiana State
Stats to date: 18-15, 3.98 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 226K/137BB, 273.2 IP

Omogrosso’s first stop as a pro was Kannapolis, where he pitched out of the bullpen with good results, he posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but his peripherals were less impressive with his strikeout rate sitting at just 5.6 K/9. Since them Omogrosso’s K rate has improved and his Minor League average currently sits at 7.4 K/9, but his walk rate over the same time span is an unacceptable 4.5 BB/9, this must improve if he wants to make it out of the minors. I like him more as a reliever going forward because I’m not convinced he has the overall repertoire to be an effective starter and his fastball/slider combo should play much better out of the ‘pen. It will be interesting to see how he handles the more advanced AAA hitters (so far not that well), will Omogrosso be able to improve that walk rate or will he be exposed as a non-prospect?

7 (225) – Justin Cassel, RHP, UC Irvine
Stats to date: 21-17, 3.55 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 225K/113BB, 329.1 IP

Cassel had a strong career at UC Irvine but was not drafted until the 7th round because there is, and was, nothing special about his game. He throws three average pitches with average control. Cassel was polished as a pitcher coming out of college, which is what allowed him to breeze through the lower minors, but his lack of a strikeout pitch or overwhelming ground ball rate means it is unlikely that he becomes a Major Leaguer. Expect Cassel to bounce around between AA and AAA for most, if not the rest of, his career.

8 (255) – Kent Gerst, CF, Fort Zumwalt West HS, MO
Stats to date: .257 AVG, .333 OBP, .345 SLG, 20.1 XB%

Gerst’s game is all about the speed, he’s very quick (a 70 on the 20-80 scale) and he’s also a strong defensive player but there is little else to his game at this point in time. He has a similar skill set to Jacoby Ellsbury, leading to comparisons between the two a few years ago, but Gerst hasn’t developed much since that point and has stagnated as a prospect. Gerst is still young so there is time for him to improve but if he is the next Ellsbury, I would have expected to see more from him in three years of pro ball.

9 (285) – Chris Duffy, 3B, Cypress Creek HS, Orlando DID NOT SIGN

10 (315) – Lee Cruz, OF, Tampa
Stats to date: .261 AVG, .300 OBP, .424 SLG, 40.5 XB%

Despite always being very old for his age Lee Cruz has posted underwhelming numbers. His extra base hit % is decent which has led to a reasonable .163 IsoP, but his plate discipline is very weak. For his minor league career he has over 3 strikeouts for every walk and that’s just not going to work. However, this is the 10th round and when you’re committed to not going over slot to sign players you end up with a lot of Lee Cruz’s.

Other notable selections:

22 (675) – Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, Saddleback CC
Stats to date: 18-11, 2.52 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 187K/73BB, 199.2 IP

Dealt to the Yankee’s in the Swisher trade (you could argue we gave up the two best players in that deal), Kanekoa shows a lot of promise for a relief pitching prospect. Texeira has flashed very strong K rates thanks largely to a wicked slider which could result in a career as a back of the ‘pen reliever. This was a very good pick at this point of the draft.

31 (945) – Stefan Gartrell, OF, San Francisco
Stats to date: .283 AVG, .371 OBP, .464 SLG, 36.1 XB%

Gartrell has really emerged onto the prospect map for me this season with his much improved power. Before this year I considered him more of an organizational filler, but now I think he has legitimate big league potential. Gartrell still leaves a lot to be desired in the plate discipline department, and it is this lack of control that probably limits his ceiling to an all or nothing power option off the bench (think a poor man’s Nelson Cruz). If he continues to improve like he has been this year he could become a solid 4th outfielder.

If there’s anyone else you think I should have included just post the name in the comment box and I’ll edit them in.

Overview:
If I’m grading the draft I’d give it a D-, there were some solid picks, particularly Shelby, Omogrosso and Gartrell but there were an awful lot of very bad picks. Of the 50 players selected by the Sox 27 signed, so far none of them have reached the Majors. Only three of them are on my top 30 prospects list with just one of them in the top 10 (Shelby, at 9). That’s not good enough. Fortunately, the changes have been swift and we now have Doug Laumann back in charge. Doug was the scouting director between 2000 and 2003 before being demoted to pro scout. Let the good times roll in.