Unfortunately the White Sox did not send many pitchers of interest to the Arizona Fall League, but one player who did catch the eye was Sergio Santos. Santos is a former 1st round pick, he was selected number 27 overall in the 2002 first year payer draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but after stalling as an offensive prospect the White Sox signed him and converted him to pitching. In his first season off the mound Santos had some fairly mixed results, including an 8.16 ERA and a 6.38 BB/9 in 28.2 innings over four levels. There were some encouraging points for Santos, namely his 9.57 K/9 and a purported 99 mph fastball. The White Sox recently added Santos to the 40-man roster protecting him from this years Rule 5 Draft, so they obviously see something that they like in Sergio, but let’s see what PITCHf/x has to say.

Velocity Table:

As you can see from this velocity table Santos can dial it up. He didn’t quite manage to hit the triple digits, but he was the second hardest thrower in the AFL, behind, guess who, Stephen Strasburg. The average fastball velocity from a right handed pitcher is around 92 mph, so Santos’ average FB velocity of 95.68 mph gives him legitimate plus velocity. The differential between Santos’ fastball and changeup velocities was just over 10%, which is very good. His fastball/slider differential was also solid.

Raw Data:

First I’ll give a brief explanation of the movement graph. We’re looking at it from the catchers standpoint. You’ll notice that the graph indicates some of the pitches are “rising”, however, due to the laws of gravity we know this is not possible. What the graph is actually showing is how much each pitch moves compared to an otherwise similar pitch thrown withot any spin, so Santos’ fastball is not actually rising by an average of 6.38 vertical inches, but instead it is falling 6.38 inches less than an otherwise similar pitch thrown without any spin. Likewise, negative vertical movement indicates the pitch fell by however many inches more than an otherwise similar pitch thrown without any spin. Negative horizontal movement indicates the pitch moved in on a right handed batter and positive horizontal movement indicates the pitch moved in on a left handed batter, again, compared to the otherwise similar pitch thrown without any spin.

Without context, this data means nothing, as we don’t have any reference points to tell us whether Santos’ movement is above or below average. So what I’m going to do is compare Santos’ movement to the average moment of a right handed pitcher.

Average pitch movement from a RHP:

From looking at this average movement data we can see that Santos’ stuff moves… a lot. He’s getting upwards of 2 inches of sink more than average, and anywhere from 2-5 inches of negative horizontal movement more than average. Now getting a lot of movement isn’t necessarily going to be a good thing and it can lead to control issues, something that Santos has had. But if you can put the ball over the plate on a consistent basis while getting a lot of movement, I’ve got to assume that this will yield good results.

Next up I’m going to look at Santos’ release point graph. This isn’t especially useful from a diagnostic standpoint but it does allow us to see if a pitcher is tipping any of his pitches. You can see from the graph that his changeup is coming from an ever so slightly lower point than the other three pitches, but it’s a negligible amount and Santos should be fine when it comes to tipping pitches.

Now we get onto Sergio’s Achilles heel; control and command. You can see from the location graph that Sergio’s pitches miss, often. You’ll notice that both his fastballs and changeups are missing almost exclusively to the right side of the plate (from the pitchers perspective) and this is exactly what you would expect given what we saw on his movement graph. You’ll also notice that his pitches are missing down often, and again this is to be expected given what we saw in the movement graph; if your pitches get a lot of sink, when you miss, you’ll likely miss down and out of the zone. To this point we’ve seen that Sergio’s velocity and movement have been significantly above average, but his control is certainly well below average. He will need to improve this if he wants to stick with the Sox out of ST.

The last graphs that I want to look at are of Sergio’s flight paths. Flight paths, as you can probably imagine (and see), show the estimated path than an average pitch takes from release point to the catcher. They effectively tell you the same thing as the movement graph but it’s a little more palpable for PITCHf/x newcomers. You can see that Sergio’s slider has some good break to it and I like the pitch quite a lot, it also looks to take a very similar initial path to the fastball, which may make the pitch tough to pick up. Again you can see the extreme movement of the change, another pitch that could prove very valuable to Sergio if he learns to consistently throw it over the plate.

Finally I’m going to try and summarize the effectiveness of each of Santos’ pitches with the help of whiff rates. Whiff rates tell you how often a pitch incurs a swinging strike, or in other words, how difficult a pitch is to hit. The slider is the pitch that really jumps out for me and the 36.36% whiff rate is significantly above the league average whiff rate for a slider of 28.7%. For me, the slider is by far Santos’ best offering, it has good movement, velocity and has been proven difficult to hit even in an extreme hitters environment. Santos’ fastball has the makings of a great pitch with the plus velocity, but it has disappointingly low whiff rate of 5.83%. I think this is case in point of how velocity isn’t everything. You need to have command of a pitch in order to utilize it’s full potential. I think Santos’ fastball at present is average at best, but with the potential to be much more than that. Like his fastball, Santos’ changeup also has a below average whiff rate and the lack of control makes it a below average offering. The movement that Santos gets on the change could make it a neutralizing pitch against left handers but he must get it over the plate more consistently. Up to this point I have been including Santos’ curve for tokens sake and due to the fact that he only threw three of them, I would not feel comfortable making any kind of evaluation of it.

So in conclusion, I see Sergio Santos as currently having a fringe average fastball, a plus slider and a below average change. All of his pitches should improve as (or if) he learns to better command them. Due to being out of options, Sergio will need to stick with the big club out of Spring Training or he will be exposed to waivers. It’s probably too early for him to pitch in the Majors as he needs at least one more year to work on his control, but he could surprise, again in Arizona, and take the last spot on the roster.

References:
All PITCHf/x data was taken from Brooks Baseball
Flight Paths were created using Harry Pavlidis’ template file from BtB
Average pitch movement was taken from Harry Pavlidis at BtB
Average whiff rates by pitch type were taken from Sky at BtB

Notes:
I’m a PITCHf/x newcomer so all constructive criticism is welcomed and encouraged.
PITCHf/x is not 100% accurate, I did not change any pitch classifications and as a result some of them are likely to be wrong.

Retherford had 3 RBI including a 2-run HR in the 8th inning to give the Javelinas the lead for good in the final. However, overall, Retherford’s AFL didn’t go as well though. He got off to a hot start, but slumped the rest of the way to finish with lines of .246/.333/.348/.681 (not including the title game) in 69 AB. On the upside, he had seven walks and just nine strikeouts. Obviously, the AFL isn’t long enough for a healthy sample size, but it is encouraging to see C.J. walk more than normal and still have a good contact rate. He didn’t show a lot of power, but his two HR came against Stephen Strasburg and in the title game. He’s been getting more attention as he nears the Majors, but a projection as a utility man (possibly even an above-average one) still remains reasonable and likely.

The highlight of the AFL from the Sox standpoint has been Brent Morel. Morel captured the league batting title after hitting .435 (27-62). Before everyone gets too excited, he only had four extra base hits and four walks. He’s not likely to be a star hitter, but he plays good defense and makes contact. What more could you want out of a third baseman? The question becomes what his ETA is. Morel is more than likely going to start in AA to start 2010 putting him 1-2 years away still. Mark Teahan’s arrival probably puts the Sox in no rush to move Morel through the upper levels of the system.

Meanwhile, Jordan Danks finished in the top five in hits, walks and OBP and led the league in runs scored (31). Danks plays good center field and the scouts agreed in various reports out of Arizona. He had a great walk rate (20 in 99 AB) and hit .343, but the concern has been contact rate and he did nothing to change that. He struck out in almost 22% of his plate appearances in Arizona, staying in line with his 2009 numbers in Winston-Salem and Birmingham. He doesn’t project to hit for big power so he will need to improve that to be a successful hitter in the Majors. At the same time, a good defensive center fielder that can get on-base will always have a job.

On the pitching side, no one made a big impression. Kyle Bellamy pitched well, but joined the league late and only pitched 5.2 innings. Matt Long continued the success he had with the Barons late this year, but his high 80s fastball makes him only a fringe prospect. Sergio Santos showed his usual (high velocity, lots of strikeouts and no control) and Justin Cassel and Jacob Rasner had tough times in the fall league.

As for the changes, the most notable is Brent Morel replacing the injured Dayan Viciedo. Viciedo had right elbow inflammation, which is really disappointing because the AFL was a great opportunity for Viciedo to show he is the elite prospect the Sox paid for. Morel has been unspectacular so far in the Cuban’s place. Morel is hitting .280 (7-25), but has no extra base hits and only one walk.

The other addition, reliever Kyle Bellamy, is further proof that Bellamy is the favorite to be the first from the 2009 draft class to make it to the Majors. He’s only pitched two innings, but the former Miami Hurricane has yet to allow a run.

As for the original Javelinas, Jordan Danks is leading the way. He was named to the AFL’s all-star type Rising Stars game that takes place Saturday. Hitting .333 (22-66) he is fourth in the league in OBP at .450, second in runs with 20 and tied for fourth in walks with 13. Most importantly for Danks, he’s only struck out 14 times in 79 plate appearances. Strike out rate has been a noteworthy concern regarding Danks, but so far so good in the AFL.

Meanwhile, C.J. Retherford has been slumping. He is 1 for his last 18 and his average for the fall is down to .255. Early on he was creating a lot of buzz as a competitor for the second base job, or least the backup at some point next season, but the Chris Getz and Josh Fields for Mark Teahen trade complicates things. Gordon Beckham is supposedly moving to second base, locking down that position, but Retherford still may get a shot to battle Jayson Nix for reserve infielder.

The rest of the pitchers aren’t the flashy prospects among the White Sox representatives, but Matt Long has been the best of the group (10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 7 K, 1 BB). Sergio Santos (9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB) has at least shown the strikeout rate you hope for from a pitcher with plus velocity. Justin Cassel (14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA) and Jacob Rasner (2.1 IP, 27 ERA) have struggled and are fading away into non-prospect territory.

Note: stats are through games of November 5.

The Peoria Javelinas, the club where the White Sox prospects are playing, is 5-3 with a league leading .332 batting average. Yes, .332 as a team. The AFL is certainly a hitters’ league and the White Sox hitters have contributed to that. Let’s start by taking a look at how the Sox hitters are doing through the Javelinas’ first 8 games.

C.J. Retherford: 6-15 (.400), 2 3B, 5 RBI, 2 R, BB, K, .438 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.104 OPS

Jordan Danks: 8-22 (.364), 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1/1 SBA, .462 OBP, .727 SLG, 1.189 OPS

Dayan Viciedo: 6-18 (.333), 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, BB, 6 K

The three hitters the Sox sent to the Phoenix area are clearly the team’s best AFL prospects. All three are off to a hot start in the heat of Arizona. It’s nice to see Danks hit for power, even if it’s in Arizona. The same goes for Viciedo, but striking out in almost 1/3 of his plate appearances is a concern. Danks and Viciedo have a strong case to be the two most intriguing White Sox hitting prospects in 2010 because both are coming off disappointing seasons and are well regarded talents. As for Retherford, he continues to hit at every level. He could be a third contender for playing time at second base next year with a good spring and a hot start in AAA.

Meanwhile, the pitchers haven’t been as successful, which isn’t much of a surprise.

Justin Cassel: 5.2 IP, 9.53 ERA, 8 R (6 ER), 6 K, 2 BB, 11 H in 2 starts

Sergio Santos: 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3 R, 5 K, BB, 7 H (2 HR) in 3 games

Matt Long: 5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 8 H in 3 games

Jacob Rasner: 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5 R, 0 K, BB, 6 H in 2 games

The Sox sent a bunch of fringe prospects to Arizona, but Santos is a more interesting case. The converted infielder has big time heat on his fastball, but needs to refine his stuff. If he improves he could become a high upside reliever. As for the others, Cassel and Rasner are running out of chances. An awful 2009 from Cassel bumped his prospect status and Rasner has been mediocre throughout his career. Long, a 2nd rounder in 2006, had a strong campaign for the Barons, pitching out of the bullpen for the first time since 2006. However, his fastball is only in the high 80s and the rest of his stuff hasn’t been as good as expected so it’s hard to see him as a top prospect.

Let’s not put too much stock into barely more than a week in a fall league, but the Arizona Fall League is a true hidden gem of baseball and is worth following if you are going through early offseason anxiety. For daily updates on the AFL follow us on our Twitter and check out the AFL home page.

Other than Jhonny Nunez’s promotion to the White Sox, Fernando Hernandez, Charlis Burdie and Joseph Serafin were the most notable names to receive the resulting promotions.

Hernandez, who turned 25 on the day of the trade deadline, was moved up to Charlotte after posting a 1.71 ERA in 52.2 innings out of the Birmingham bullpen. The former Rule V pick of the A’s has struck out 53 and walked 18 this year. He compiled 20 saves for the Barons. Joining him in Charlotte are Justin Cassel and Matthew Zaleski. Both have been with the Knights already this season. Cassel, 24, was demoted to Birmingham after getting shelled for most of his time in Charlotte (3-8, 5.26 ERA). In 6 starts with the Barons Cassel had a 4.50 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Zaleski, 27, made a successful spot start for the Knights (6 IP, 1 R) earlier this season.

Infielder turned pitcher Sergio Santos was among the new Barons. Santos is 26 and hasn’t had much success as a reliever at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, but has struck out 17 in his 15 innings of work this year. Johnnie Lowe, who had a 4.04 ERA in 20 starts with the Dash this season, will take Cassel’s spot in the Barons’ rotation. Lowe, 24, isn’t viewed as much of a prospect despite decent minor league numbers. 23 year-old reliever Miguel Socolovich also got moved up from the Dash, where he had a 3.13 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 37.1 innings.

Moving up to the Carolina League was Burdie and Daniel Albritton. Albritton is a non-prospect, but Burdie has been racking up strikeouts. He had 60 in 56.1 innings for the Intimidators to contribute to his 1.76 ERA. He has had trouble with control (28 BB), but has struck out over a batter an inning at every minor league stop so far. At 23, he will need to move up the system quickly in the next couple years to have any prospect status, but his strikeout rate makes him worth following.

Serafin, the 37th round pick out of Vermont this year, has dominated at Bristol since signing and was promoted to Kannapolis. The lefty is only 5′10″, but he had a 1.64 ERA and a WHIP under 1 during his time with the BriSox. It’s hard to call him a prospect because he’s 23 and performance in rookie ball doesn’t say a lot when you are older than almost all of the players, but he deserved to be moved up. Organizational players Enrique Lechuga and Dylan Axelrod also got promoted to the I’s.

Brooks spot in Winston Salem was filled by converted infielder turned pitcher Sergio Santos. Santos joined the organization as Non-Roster Invitee MI this spring, but was eventually traded to the Giants. We are unsure how he returned to the Sox, but he had spent April and May in extended spring training where he was working on his conversion to the mound. Santos was a 1st round selection of the Dbacks in 2002 and posted a 7.36 ERA in 8 games for the Intidimidators prior to his promotion.

The moves leaves 3 open roster spots in Kannapolis and 1 in Winston-Salem. Expect to see Josh Phegley fill one of the roster spots in Kannapolis. The Intimidators also need a pitcher and a middle infielder and we should see some more roster moves in the next 24 hours.

CWS Star:
Jared Mitchell just upped his price after his performance in the CWS. I believe his performance will increase his asking price and ultimately make him a tougher sign, so it’s difficult to speculate on his eventual destination.

Cheers,
JPN